The Federal Reserve is in a panic! The tariff hammer shatters the dream of interest rate cuts, and the wealth-making code in the crypto space is about to be rewritten!
What the market fears most is not negative news, but uncertainty—just like cryptocurrency players hate not the crashes, but the sudden 'pulling of the plug'." The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee's statement about the tariff threat possibly delaying interest rate cuts can be considered a 'smoke bomb' thrown into the current market.
Originally, the Federal Reserve might have planned to cut interest rates this year to 'loosen the throttle' on the economy, but now the tariff hammer wielded by the Trump administration has made the inflation outlook murky. A real example: after Canada imposed tariffs on U.S. dairy products last year, the cost of importing U.S. dairy products rose directly by 15%, and this type of imported inflation will make the Federal Reserve hesitant to cut interest rates easily, fearing that prices, which have been hard to suppress, will rise again.
Here is a key logic chain: tariffs → price increase of imported goods → rise in corporate costs → wage inflation spiral → the Federal Reserve is forced to maintain high-interest rates.
For the crypto market, this is equivalent to stepping on the brakes for Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative—when real interest rates remain high, the halo of safe-haven assets like gold will dim, and Bitcoin will find it hard to stand out.
However, there is a counterintuitive point: during the peak of the U.S.-China trade war in 2019, Bitcoin actually rose from $3,000 to $13,000. This indicates that under extreme uncertainty, the 'safe-haven attribute' of cryptocurrencies may be reactivated. But this time is different; the current size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is twice that of 2019, and the policy space is much narrower.
Advice for crypto players: Don't be swayed by short-term fluctuations; focus on two key indicators—the weekly initial jobless claims and the monthly PCE price index. Just like playing Texas Hold'em, what is needed now is a tight aggressive strategy: reduce leveraged trading and keep your bullets ready for a clear signal from the Federal Reserve.
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