"What if Bitcoin rises?" But what does "might" mean? History tells us it not only might — it must. July and October are the two months that Bitcoin apologists circle in red every year. Because that's when Satoshi personally descends from the clouds and hands out Xs to everyone.
Let’s look at the bare numbers.
Since 2012, when most of us were still trying to understand why these "internet coins" existed, July has delighted us with green candles 69% of the time. Sexy statistics — pardon the pun. Nine out of thirteen Julys have seen growth. Well, does that sound like a plan?
But if summer isn't enough for you, hold onto your hats: October has entered crypto legends as Uptober. Because 76.9% of the time — this is no joke. Every time in September you bitterly look at a minus 20% from your portfolio and curse Twitter for the memes about "red candles" — October comes. And the miracle begins. Suddenly, market makers remember that they also have mortgages, and ETF managers have quarterly bonuses. And — oh miracle! — the price goes up.
What does this mean for you? Absolutely nothing, if you are sitting in stables waiting for someone else to make money for you. Or if you still believe in the forecasts of the "gurus" who draw arrows on the chart every morning and change their opinions like socks.
But if you are ready to take a risk — July and October historically wink at you: "Buddy, don’t you want some Xs? Let's do it without the tears." The only question is whether you have the patience to hold on until mid-autumn and not sell everything at the first "dump."
And now seriously: seasonality is a beautiful thing. But the market loves to break patterns exactly when you believe in them. And if you've already taken a loan secured by a hamster and your grandmother's TV — stop. Reassess the risk. And maybe remember that there is only one eternal winner in the market — the one who managed to sell you "alpha" for a subscription on Telegram.
