The cryptocurrency market peaked at an astonishing $3.7 trillion in 2024, but due to ongoing market volatility in April 2025, some are asking: Are we entering a cryptocurrency bear market? In this article, we will explore the latest market trends in cryptocurrency, understand why Bitcoin dominates, and examine the performance of altcoins. Let’s dive deeper.
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The cryptocurrency market peaked at an astonishing $3.7 trillion in 2024, but due to ongoing market volatility in April 2025, some are asking: Are we entering a cryptocurrency bear market? A bear market means prices drop significantly, such as by 20% or more, and stay low for a period. Others wonder if 'altcoin season' is coming, where the performance of altcoins (all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin) exceeds that of Bitcoin.
At present, it seems we are still in a bull market, with prices rising instead of falling after the recent tariff turmoil. Some evidence suggests signs of a cryptocurrency bear market, but experts believe that altcoin season has not fully started, and Bitcoin's dominance remains high. However, this could change later this year.
In this article, we will explore the latest market trends in cryptocurrency, understand why Bitcoin dominates, examine the performance of altcoins, and look ahead to the future of cryptocurrency in 2025. Let’s dive deeper.
Assessing the bear market hypothesis
A cryptocurrency bear market occurs when prices drop 20% or more from their peak and continue to decline, trading slows down, and people lose hope. So, has this situation begun in April 2025? Although we have seen prices drop beyond this extent, we believe the bear market has not yet started. Here’s why.
According to forecasts, Bitcoin's value will reach $150,000 by mid-2025, as its price rises by 150% throughout 2024. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will exceed $3.7 trillion by the end of 2024, compared to an initial value of $1.6 trillion at the beginning of the year. The popularity of cryptocurrencies remains strong, as the total market capitalization has doubled in just 12 months.
The recent market fluctuation below $2.7 trillion is not significant and did not last long. Active market trading continues at high fear levels (around 25), indicating significant panic behavior in the market due to the recent tariff wars.
The market showed signs of pausing on April 10, 2025, as investors seemed to be catching their breath in the ongoing bull market movement rather than entering a bear market decline. The sustained price growth throughout the market phase indicates its viability as a bull market.
Bitcoin's Dominance and Market Dynamics
Bitcoin occupies the top position in the cryptocurrency space because it is known as 'digital gold,' which can protect investors during economic turmoil. During April 2025, Bitcoin maintained its leading position in the market.
Bitcoin's dominance across the cryptocurrency space plummeted from a peak of 60% during November 2024 to 51%. This is a decline, but Bitcoin still holds over half of the market share at 63%.
Why is Bitcoin so strong? Big money likes it. The billions flowing into Bitcoin ETFs indicate that companies are making big bets. New U.S. regulations also make it easier for them to invest, boosting confidence. Additionally, as the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, people view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.
As early as 2021, when altcoins took off, Bitcoin's dominance fell below 40%. This situation is not occurring now, with 51% still high, indicating that cash is flowing mainly into Bitcoin rather than broadly into altcoins. It’s like Bitcoin is the main course, while altcoins are merely appetizers so far.
This is important because a strong Bitcoin can sustain the continuation of a bull market. When it leads, the entire market feels stable. But this dominance also explains why we have not yet seen an altcoin season, as Bitcoin remains dominant. Later, if its share decreases further, altcoins may have the opportunity to shine.
Will there be an altcoin season in 2025? Analyzing altcoin performance.
Altcoin season refers to a period when the performance of altcoins, such as Ethereum, Dogecoin, or Solana, starts to surpass that of Bitcoin. This is significant for investors, as it means funds are flowing from Bitcoin to these other cryptocurrencies. However, has the altcoin season of 2025 already begun in April? Let’s analyze.
What Constitutes Altcoin Season?
Experts use the altcoin season index to determine this. It checks the top altcoins and sees if 75% of them have outperformed Bitcoin within 90 days. If they do, it’s an official altcoin season. Currently, the index is at 16, far below the 75% standard. Moreover, since the start of 2024, only 20 out of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin. This is less than half, so the altcoin season of 2025 has not yet arrived.
Some altcoins are shining
Even without a full altcoin season in 2025, some altcoins are thriving. Driven by meme coins (like $TRUMP, $MELANIA, and other country coins), Solana surged to $294.85 in 2024. Many cryptocurrency buyers plan to scoop it up in 2025 as it is part of the cryptocurrency reserves in the U.S. and is inexpensive to use. There are also newer things: Dogecoin is also very popular. The number of cryptocurrencies related to AI and real-world assets (RWA) has also surged significantly. These gains indicate that altcoins are not dying; they just haven't taken over the market yet.
According to a report from @CryptoQuant, now might be the time to start adopting a DCA strategy for altcoins.
Their report states, 'We have entered a buying zone defined by the 30-day moving average falling below the annual average... The last time we reached these levels was in September 2023, just after the bear market ended.'
Next, on April 11, another piece of good news emerged as President Trump signed the first-ever Bitcoin and cryptocurrency measures in history, creating a milestone. The law clearly repealed an IRS rule targeting DeFi systems, alleviating privacy concerns and reducing regulatory barriers for consumers and developers. It is hailed as a step towards more apparent legal protections for blockchain innovation, potentially benefiting assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin.
How big is the altcoin market right now?
The total value of all altcoins reached $1.89 trillion by the end of 2024, surpassing the previous record of $1.79 trillion set in January 2021. This is a significant increase! But comparing it to history: in May 2021, during a true altcoin season, the value of altcoins was 130% of Bitcoin's. Today, Bitcoin's dominance remains very strong at 63% market share. Therefore, altcoins are rising, but their gains are not enough to surpass Bitcoin, so it cannot be called an altcoin season.
Forecasting future possibilities
Towards the end of last year, there were signs of an altcoin season. The index reached 75 on December 2, 2024, and stayed there for a week. But a true altcoin season lasts for months, like the three months in 2021, not just a week. Currently, Bitcoin's control keeps the situation stable.
Nonetheless, popular trends may change this. BRC-20 tokens and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) have also yielded substantial returns. These new ideas (considering blockchain or AI for real-world applications) are attracting cash and attention.
What is holding it back?
Bitcoin is the largest barrier. It occupies 63% of the dominance, absorbing most of the funds flowing into cryptocurrency. Unless this ratio decreases further, such as below 40% like in past altcoin seasons, altcoins will not receive adequate attention. Currently, they are growing, but this is more like a warm-up rather than the main event. An altcoin season may brew later in 2025, but it has not yet arrived.
Future Outlook and Focus
Will a cryptocurrency bear market quietly arrive? It could happen if regulations become strict or if the economy faces issues, but for now, cryptocurrency is performing strongly. Altcoin season 2025 may arrive later this year, with experts expecting between $25.3 billion to $29.4 billion in venture capital, along with new technologies like AI coins driving the altcoin hype.
Please pay close attention to the following points: altcoin season index, Bitcoin's dominance (below 50% may indicate the onset of the altcoin era), and Google Trends.
Conclusion
As of April 10, 2025, there is no cryptocurrency bear market, Bitcoin is up, and the total market capitalization reaches $2.59 trillion, with millions of users participating. Is altcoin season 2025 here? Not yet, as Bitcoin's 63% dominance and a 16 altcoin season index indicate that altcoins are not stealing the spotlight.