Fundamentals:

The money earned in the crypto circle in June was lost back in July, which is frustrating, equivalent to two months of work wasted.

After 2 weeks of a cooling-off period to avoid getting too excited, it may be time to pause in the crypto circle for now, as there are currently no mid to long-term entry opportunities. Moreover, chasing long positions is not part of my trading system, especially at the end of a bull market and at historical highs; the risks here are simply too large, and there could easily be significant price drops at any moment, often by thousands of points. In this case, short-term profits may also be discounted due to multiple stop-loss sweeps.

If I have to say something, you can indeed buy a little bit of spot, and consider doing some options, but I don't plan to operate with large funds anymore, probably just using about 40,000 to 50,000 USDT to speculate a bit on SOL and altcoins catching up.

Let's pause the market analysis for now. If you want to chase long positions, manage your positions and leverage carefully; chasing Bitcoin may not be as meaningful as SOL.

In terms of US stocks, next year is definitely going to be a bear market. While the S&P 500 continues to hit new highs, the number of companies hitting new highs on the NYSE is only 88 more than those hitting new lows. As mentioned before, the current breadth of the US stock market is very poor, which has historically been a precursor to weak market performance. Since 1972, if the number of companies hitting new highs is less than 100 compared to those hitting new lows at the time the S&P 500 breaks new highs, the returns in the following 12 months have always been below average.

The bear market in US stocks will not be less than 13 months anyway, but regardless of how long the bear market lasts, basically an 80% drop will be satisfied after 13 months. So you can either start dollar-cost averaging after 13 months or start after breaking below the weekly MA60.

Regarding gold, the current market peak has lasted for 3 months and is currently in a narrow range. Referring to the situation in 2011, the market peak lasted for a full year. Therefore, trading in gold should not be too hasty; currently, operations can be conducted in the range of 3,200 to 3,400.

Back to the market:

First, regarding Bitcoin, since it has already broken upwards and has surpassed the 105,000 line, from all angles, it can no longer be seen as bearish. It should be said that the daily line from 112,000 has already ended at 98,100.

Although I personally lost a lot on short positions, fortunately, the shorts on ETH and SOL in June were quite profitable, overall, June and July can be considered break-even. On the other hand, it seems that everyone is not very keen on going long now. I was quite surprised yesterday because after the price rose to 102,000 in the morning, the fee dropped directly to 0.01%, and then the contract price was higher than the spot price, which indicates that the shorts have already been liquidated.

As a result, when I looked in the evening, the fee was again pushed down to 0.001%. After one wave of liquidation, a new wave entered. Now the position is light, and the main force casually pulled it up several thousand points.

First, from a larger perspective, where will the weekly upward wave starting from 74,500 go? Here it is clearly not possible to calculate with points, but only with ratios. So as long as Bitcoin does not exceed 167,000, it will produce divergence and end the bull market. However, in reality, it won't reach that high; we will continue to discuss how high it can go.

From the daily level, it can now be confirmed that it started an upward daily wave from 98,100, with the target rise meeting at 135,600, and it will not exceed 147,100. Normally, it should be closer to 135,600; let's assume it will go to 138,000.

From a time perspective, assuming the main upward wave starts in July, then it would peak in August if it's fast, or in September if it's slow. This specifically depends on whether the rise in July is rapid (more than 30%). Previously, it was said that the peak would be in October, but currently, it seems that the bull market may end early in August or September.

The specific path is likely to be to first go to 138,000, pull back to 115,000, and then go to 139,000 to end the bull market.

Of course, is it still possible that the peak is in October? It is possible, but the structure would be more complex, and a central pivot would be constructed again. From a time perspective, it would be July up, August down, September main rise, and October peak, which would also reach 159,000. In terms of the points, it would first go to 138,000, pull back to 115,000, then go to 158,000, pull back to 135,000, and then go to 159,000. The difference between this possibility and the previous one is whether there will be a main upward wave in September.

If there is a main upward wave in September, then the logic remains that the interest rate cut will drive the market up, peaking in the next month.

If there is no main upward wave in September, then the interest rate cut benefits from July and August will be realized early, causing the interest rate cut benefits in September to turn into a negative.

Regarding Bitcoin, to summarize: there are two possibilities for the peak of this bull market. If it peaks in August or September, then the main upward wave in July would peak around 139,000. If it peaks in October, then apart from July, September will have another exaggerated move on the daily chart, with a rise of no less than 40,000 points, and the final point should be at 159,000.

If we consider ETH/SOL/altcoins, since the exchange rates have stabilized, it is still possible to speculate on subsequent catch-up through spot trading. Currently, the altcoin index is only at 29, and normally, it should make another push to 80+ this year.




In terms of operations:

1. Buy ETH/SOL and altcoin spot. Allocate 2% of your position to ETH/SOL with 20x leverage.

2. Buy call options for Bitcoin (when the daily line of Bitcoin breaks above the upper Bollinger band, the average upward trend will continue for another month and a week), with options expiring before the end of August, targeting above 136,000.

Note: You only need to choose one between ETH and SOL for purchase, depending on your belief.

SOL believers:

The exchange rate of SOL against Bitcoin should be able to rise to around 0.0021. If calculated at 138,000, that is 290; if calculated at 158,000, that is 330. SOL should make at least one upward move to above 250 before a proper pullback occurs.

3. If we reach above 136,000 in August or September, purchase put options expiring in 4 months, targeting below 82,500.

4. If the put options are closed, then there will definitely be a main upward wave in September, and start positioning short positions in the week of October 20, with take profit still at 82,500.


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