🚨 Bitcoin Blasts Above $118,800 — Bullish Breakout or Classic Bull Trap Setup?

In the early hours of July 11, Bitcoin broke past $118,000 and reached exchange highs of $118,800, depending on venue data. CoinGlass estimates the increase erased $1.25 billion in short holdings in one trading day.

Bitcoin Bull Trap or Breakout?

After writing that corporate treasury demand has “grown exponentially, with dozens of new companies popping up in recent months,” he advised against ignoring a large breakout until refuted. Edwards expects a 50–70% rise over the following six months, or $170,000–$196,000.

Hard data supports his treasury emphasis. A record 159,107 BTC were added by public businesses in Q2, bringing aggregate corporate holdings beyond 847,000 BTC, or 4% of max supply. Corporate Bitcoin purchases outperform ETF net inflows.

Lawmakers seem urgent. According to a House Financial Services Committee news release, the week of July 14 will focus on the CLARITY Act, Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and GENIUS Act.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are active: BlackRock's iShares fund has exceeded 700,000 BTC in 18 months. However, Edwards and Sigel highlight that treasury businesses are the marginal buyer in 2025.

Notably, the rise is happening despite a favorable macro background. Christopher Waller told a Dallas Fed audience he is “open to cutting the policy rate in July,” calling current settings “too tight” due to falling inflation. Over the last weeks, US President Donald Trump has demanded quick rate reduction from Fed head Jerome Powell. Bitcoin is also rallying as Trump's tariff escalation fades.

Despite optimistic headlines, specialists say momentum must stay over $110,000 to prevent a failure breakthrough. Edwards continues, “This theory would be weakened with closes below $110K and invalidated below $105K.”

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