Bitcoin broke through the historical peak of $118,865 yesterday, instantly igniting market sentiment. But the real shocker came from Washington, as the Trump administration swiftly announced that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and four other major crypto assets would officially be included in the U.S. national strategic reserve. Within four hours, the global crypto market cap surged by $300 billion; an epic market trend has entered the countdown!
1. $130,000? Institutional consensus is crazily coalescing.
Top market players are collectively betting on short-term targets:
Standard Chartered's latest report: By the end of Q3, Bitcoin will challenge $135,000, aiming for the $200,000 mark by the end of the year. Its core logic points to the 'halving cycle curse being broken'—the massive influx of funds from ETFs and corporate coin purchases has completely rewritten historical patterns.
Gold medal analyst Doctor Profit's battle blueprint: Two offensive routes exposed! Path 1: First attack $113,000-$114,000, then retreat to $92,000 to gather strength, ultimately aiming for $120,000-$130,000; Path 2: Violently break through the flag formation, skipping adjustments and directly targeting the $130,000 core position.
On-chain data signals a nuclear explosion: Accumulation addresses saw a weekly surge of 71%, with an annual peak of 248,000 BTC signaling that whales are still crazily buying. The MVRV indicator shows that there will hardly be large-scale profit-taking before $130,900—this is a resonance of technical and capital will!
2. Trump's 'crypto nuclear bomb' completely rewrites the rules of the game.
The policy raid on July 11 triggered a global capital tsunami.
National strategic reserve list: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Solana, and Cardano have received official endorsement. Among them, BTC and ETH are positioned as the 'core assets of the reserve system.'
The policy transmission effect is immediate: Bitcoin surged 11% in a single day, breaking $94,164, while Cardano shocked everyone with a 60% increase. This is not just a confidence vote but also a starting gun for sovereign capital to enter.
Deep game theory surfaces: Trump's (Digital Financial Competitiveness Act) dramatically cuts the crypto trading tax rate from 30% to 15%, while allowing chartered banks to engage in digital asset business. The space for regulatory arbitrage is collapsing, and the tide of compliance is irreversible.
3. A trillion-dollar capital flood is impacting the market gates.
The institutional arsenal is being filled at an unprecedented speed:
ETFs devouring gold shares: In Q2, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $12.4 billion, crushing gold ETFs' $6.9 billion inflow by two times. BlackRock raised $370 million in a single day, and regulated funds are becoming the new pricing core.
The trend of businesses hoarding coins is spreading: in addition to MicroStrategy's purchase of 20,000 BTC in Q2, 65 companies followed suit, buying 56,000 BTC. Standard Chartered predicts that Q3 corporate purchases will fully exceed Q2 peaks.
The Federal Reserve's changes are fueling the fire: Trump hints at replacing Powell in October, and the market is betting on interest rate cuts in advance. The correlation between U.S. Treasury yield premiums and Bitcoin prices is skyrocketing, and a new round of liquidity frenzy is brewing.
4. Warning of hidden dangers! A showdown between bulls and bears is imminent.
In the shadow of the carnival, the blade of leverage shines coldly:
The liquidation heat map shows that the $107,350-$109,800 range has become a 'death zone,' filled with billions of dollars in long and short stop-loss orders. The current spot/derivatives trading volume ratio is only 0.07, and the market structure is as fragile as paper.
Trump's tariff raid once caused Bitcoin to plummet below $108,000 in a single day, instantly shattering its safe-haven myth. If there are further changes before the August 1 tariff deadline, high-leverage positions will bleed heavily.
RSI overbought signals are flashing, with a 30-day unrealized profit and loss ratio reaching the 80th percentile. Historical scripts warn: after hitting a new high in May, there was a subsequent drop of 12% to $98,000.
5. Final scenario simulation: Is $200,000 just a matter of time?
When traditional finance is deeply bound to the crypto revolution, the market has entered a self-reinforcing spiral:
The SEC swiftly approved new crypto ETP regulations, cutting the product listing time from 240 days to 75 days, with Ripple and Solana ETFs about to flow in. Once Ethereum's head-and-shoulders neckline is broken, the $6,000 target will activate the altcoin season's nuclear explosion button.
But the real endpoint password is hidden on-chain: Glassnode detected that when Bitcoin broke $113,000, capital surged by $4.4 billion in a single day—this is not speculation but a migration of real capital.
A historical new high is just the starting point for a new level. When the national apparatus begins to seize Bitcoin and pension funds madly build positions through ETFs, $130,000? That's just the first gas station on the journey to $200,000.
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