CPI data will ignite the crypto market tonight! The battle for ETH at the $3000 threshold is crucial, with bulls betting their entire fortune!
Technical Analysis: Bullish formation + increasing volume and price, but RSI has raised a red flag.
The 4-hour candlestick chart shows that ETH's current price is $2959, with MA5 crossing above MA20 forming a golden cross, indicating a clear short-term bullish signal. The trading volume has increased for three consecutive 4-hour candlesticks, combined with a price breakout from the $2750-$2900 resistance zone, indicating significant willingness for capital to enter the market. However, the RSI indicator has surged to 76, and historically, such levels are prone to trigger a 'high-to-low reversal' scenario—similar to last week's BTC performance at the $62,000 threshold.
News: SOL ETF catalyst + large holder staking, dual engines set to ignite.
Today's key positive news: The SEC may approve the Solana spot ETF in mid to late July. Referencing the collective frenzy of altcoins following the approval of the ETH ETF in 2024, if the SOL ETF is approved, it could very likely become the 'catalyst' for ETH to break through $3000. It is also noteworthy that a mysterious address staked 1900 ETH yesterday, setting a record for a single stake this year, indicating strong bullish signals from institutions.
However, risks remain: The delay in the Ethereum Pectra upgrade undermines short-term confidence, even though the staking limit will be raised to 2048 ETH post-upgrade. Moreover, tonight's U.S. CPI data is crucial—if inflation is below expectations, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may rise, allowing ETH to break through; if the data exceeds expectations, we need to be cautious of a 'false breakout' followed by a plunge at the $3000 threshold.
Personal Opinion: $3000 is a mirror that reveals the truth.
In the short term, ETH is likely to oscillate in the $2950-$3000 range. If the CPI data is favorable + the SOL ETF launches, breaking through the $3040 resistance level could accelerate to $3200; if the data falls short of expectations, a pullback to around $2800 for a more secure buy-in is advisable. In the long term, I remain optimistic about the Ethereum ecosystem, but we must be wary of the 'good news being fully priced in as bad news' curse—the market always trades on expectations.
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