The continuous tariff reversal decisions of President Donald Trump continue to shake global financial markets, and there are no signs of stopping. Many experts warn of the risk of declining economic activity in Q3 2025.
However, unlike traditional markets, the cryptocurrency market – especially Bitcoin – is showing a distinct path, almost independent of fluctuations from tax policy. According to CEO Huang of Kronos Research, cryptocurrencies could serve as a solution to mitigate uncertainty in trade for both individuals and businesses.
The tax policy is full of surprises
President Trump's trade policy in 2025 is characterized by a series of actions of "threat – delay – reverse" regarding tariffs.
On Monday, Trump sent retaliatory tariff letters to 14 countries, with tax rates ranging from 25% to 40%. At the same time, he also extended the postponement of larger tax packages until August. Subsequent negotiations are planned, with a deadline in mid-July to finalize potential trade agreements.
"Global trade negotiations are fragmented, as the U.S. continuously changes its stance and demands more," said Mr. Huang.
Some cases show that President Trump's pressure is effective. Last week, Canada quickly canceled the digital services tax (DST) — a 3% tax on digital revenue — just one day after the U.S. unexpectedly suspended all trade negotiations with the country.
This information has caused traditional financial markets to react positively. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices both rose, while the S&P 500 reached a new record high. The Canadian dollar also maintained its value against the USD.
However, many experts believe these statements are more tactical negotiating tactics than direct escalations. Nevertheless, widespread uncertainty is still causing significant volatility and difficulties for global businesses.
The burden of costs is increasingly large
One of the most concerning factors in Trump's trade policy is the minimum tax of 10% on most imports into the U.S. – three to four times higher than the period before 2025.
"The current base tax rate is a serious economic constraint. It drives up business costs, erodes profits, and pushes consumer prices higher," Mr. Huang commented.
This sudden change has caused many businesses to panic, rushing to stockpile goods and components immediately after the Trump administration announced tax measures in February targeting Canada, China, and Mexico. However, these coping measures can only provide short-term support.
According to the Tax Policy Center, the new tax rates will start to rise sharply from the beginning of August, including 48% on women's clothing, 40% on books, and 22% on baked goods. Meanwhile, the Budget Office at Yale University calculates that the average tax burden on American consumers has now reached 18% – the highest since 1934.
As a result, consumer prices continue to rise, corporate profits shrink, and low to middle-income households are the hardest hit.
"The increase in import taxes affects the entire supply chain. Businesses are forced to absorb losses or raise selling prices," Mr. Huang added.
Is Bitcoin decoupling from tariff news?
As the wave of tariffs began in February, the cryptocurrency market reacted negatively to the continuous changes in policy. At that time, the price of Bitcoin even dropped below $80,000 – the lowest level since November 2024.
However, over time, as reversal decisions become increasingly common, Bitcoin begins to show "immunity" to tariff news. Some analysts argue that Bitcoin is becoming a macro hedge tool rather than just a speculative asset.
"Bitcoin is decoupling from tax news as it is seen as a scarce, decentralized asset that helps hedge against inflation and policy risks," Huang explained.
While U.S. stock indices fell after the new tax announcement on Monday, the price of Bitcoin surged, surpassing $118,000 – reaching a new historical peak.
Blockchain – a response solution in trade crises
In addition to price volatility, blockchain technology also provides practical solutions for businesses and individuals struggling in a context of trade instability.
Blockchain helps address the inherent limitations of traditional supply chains that are often opaque and vulnerable to changing policies.
"Blockchain provides transparent and immutable tracking for each transaction and shipment in the supply chain," Mr. Huang said. "Real-time transparency helps identify bottlenecks, verify origins, and limit fraud – particularly useful in a trade-risky world like today."
Businesses can verify product origins, track goods in real-time, and avoid unnecessary penalties or delays. This creates the ability to adapt quickly to new regulations.
In the context of prolonged economic instability, many are gradually turning to technology solutions linked to cryptocurrencies to protect their financial future.