Over $5 billion worth of #Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, with investors anticipating increased market volatility—particularly during early Friday trading hours in the European session.
While Bitcoin demonstrated notable strength during Thursday’s U.S. session—setting new all-time highs—the scale of today’s expirations could introduce short-term market turbulence. Historically, however, markets tend to stabilize quickly following major options events as traders adjust to new market conditions.
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Key Expiry Figures
Bitcoin ($BTC ):
Notional value: $4.3 billion
Open interest: 36,970 contracts
Put-to-call ratio (PCR): 1.06
Max pain point: $108,000
Ethereum (ETH):
Notional value: $712.35 million
Open interest: 239,926 contracts
PCR: 1.11
Max pain point: $2,600
The max pain point represents the price at which the greatest number of options expire worthless, resulting in maximum loss for holders. It often acts as a gravitational pull on prices in the hours leading up to expiration.
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Sentiment Indicators: Elevated Put-to-Call Ratios
Both Bitcoin and #Ethereum currently exhibit put-to-call ratios above 1, indicating that traders are holding more put options than calls. This is generally interpreted as a bearish signal—or, at minimum, an indication of hedging activity to guard against downside risks.
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Risk Appetite Surges: 500x Leverage in Play
Analysts from Greeks.live have flagged an unusually high level of speculative activity, with some traders reportedly utilizing leverage up to 500x—a risky strategy under current volatile conditions.
> “Some of these positions appear highly speculative, bordering on reckless. There’s talk of ‘100% confidence’ signals, but the underlying exposure is extremely high,” the analysts noted.
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Market Performance: BTC and $ETH Defy Gravity
Bitcoin (BTC): Trading above $116,000, hitting a new all-time high
Ethereum (ETH): Up nearly 7% in the past 24 hours, currently trading around $2,970
Both assets are currently priced well above their respective max pain levels, signaling strong bullish momentum and market resilience ahead of expiry.
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What’s Next?
Deribit options are scheduled to expire at 8:00 UTC. While a short-term pullback toward max pain levels is plausible, a swift market recalibration is the more likely scenario as traders redirect focus toward weekend price action and broader macroeconomic trends.
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Conclusion
Today's significant options expiry brings with it elevated volume and heightened market sensitivity. Although temporary volatility is expected, the broader sentiment remains bullish—underscored by price strength and speculative positioning. As the market digests the impact of today's expirations, attention will shift to upcoming catalysts over the weekend.
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