During dinner, a friend asked how to arbitrage $pump. This is actually quite simple and follows the same principle as short hedging with spot and futures:
The current price of the $pump futures contract is 0.00536, while the public offering price of $pump is fixed at 0.004, which is a 34% difference. For example:
If your subscription amount is 1000U, and you judge that this is a relatively high point, you can open a short position in the futures contract with a nominal position of 1000U, hedging it against the 1000U spot that you subscribe to tomorrow. As long as the spot price doesn't crash before the listing and then falls back, the contract and spot prices will converge and stabilize after the listing, allowing you to secure a 34% premium!
This is also why so many large investors used low leverage to short when the hyper contract was listed at 0.015 yesterday!
Of course, you can wait until just before the listing to consider hedging if there is still a premium at that time. However, even if there is a premium, there will definitely be a lot of large funds looking to arbitrage, which will quickly erase the premium!
So, you can either judge the relative high point before the listing and take advantage of the high premium to go short, but you would need to take the risk of the price crashing back; or you can wait until just before the listing, but the premium might be erased!
Personally, I plan to start shorting in batches every time it rises by 10%, determining tomorrow's subscription based on the short position, but of course, I wouldn't recommend a large amount, otherwise, you might not get that much quota tomorrow and could suffer a big loss!
