Today the price of Bitcoin has marked its new all-time high (All Time High, ATH), at $118,400.
This is not only an extremely high price level, but also significantly higher than that of a few days ago.
The strong rise in the price of Bitcoin up to the new ATH
First of all, it must be said that the previous all-time high was around $112,000, recorded shortly after mid-May.
Note that the three previous all-time highs were not very far apart: $108,000 in November 2024, $109,000 in December, and $111,000 in January 2025.
Therefore, if from December onwards the price of BTC had updated the ATH with brief excursions above the previous one, this time it literally broke through it with momentum.
Something similar happened in November, when the previous all-time high was $74,000, reached in March 2024, and thanks to the electoral victory of Trump it first broke through the $75,000 mark with momentum, then quickly headed even towards $90,000. Only from there did the rise slow down a bit.
This time too, after reaching 112,000$ again the day before yesterday, yesterday it then managed to set a new record at 113,000$, which today it broke through with momentum heading straight towards 118,000$.
The differences
However, there is a clear difference between what happened in November and what is happening now.
In November, in fact, the rise was triggered by a specific event – Trump’s electoral victory – which suddenly brought a lot of euphoria.
This time, however, there is no single event acting as a catalyst. Instead, there is a general picture that is generating euphoria, but it is not guaranteed to last.
In November, the bulk of the rise lasted two weeks, but then continued, much more gently, for at least another three. It then moved sideways for a month and a half before correcting.
Tomorrow, however, the traditional stock exchanges will be closed for the weekend, and since there is not a single strong dynamic to support the current rise, it is also possible that the crypto markets might take a small break.
In short, the situation is quite different, so much so that one cannot expect a bull or bear trend identical to back then.
The Dollar Index
However, there is perhaps at least one interesting thing in common.
In the medium term, the trend of the price of Bitcoin tends to be inversely correlated with that of the Dollar Index (DXY).
In November, however, while Bitcoin was climbing, the Dollar Index was also climbing, in a decidedly anomalous way.
However, the crypto markets seemed to be convinced that sooner or later DXY would fall, which indeed happened but a few months later.
Once again, it seems that the crypto markets are convinced that the Dollar Index is about to fall, and once again, it is not certain that it will do so immediately.
To tell the truth, the trend of the value of DXY has indeed entered a descending channel for months, which has been ongoing since the end of January and is still absolutely in progress.
However, it is not a straight, linear descent, but with continuous oscillations up and down, yet always within the descending channel.
Currently, the descending channel has an average value just above 96 points, while DXY is above 97.7. However, the ceiling of the descending channel is currently set just above 98 points, so the Dollar Index could even rise a bit more without exiting the descending channel.
The devaluation of the dollar
The financial markets seem to be convinced that the rebound of the Dollar Index, which has been occurring since the beginning of the month, not only might be about to reach the top, but also that it could be followed by a resumption of the decline.
The key point is precisely the devaluation of the dollar.
In reality, starting from 2008, the year of the last great global financial crisis, the Dollar Index entered into a large ascending channel that in theory is still ongoing, although this year it is beginning to show signs of a possible weakening.
Seventeen consecutive years of average increase in DXY have led the US dollar to strengthen significantly compared to other global currencies, including the euro and the Chinese yuan, favoring US imports and disadvantaging exports.
This has ended up unbalancing the trade balance, and Trump is trying to reduce this imbalance. He will not be able to do so if the dollar continues to strengthen, and he could receive significant help if it continues to weaken instead.
So the ascending channel that has lasted for seventeen years might be about to evaporate, while the descending one that has lasted for less than six months might hold on a bit longer.
The bottom of the multi-decade ascending channel is set at about 96 points, which is precisely the level reached in June by the medium-term descending channel just before the current small rebound began.
The reaction of Bitcoin towards new ATH
In November, Bitcoin’s reaction to the decline of the Dollar Index appeared unusual, but in reality, the market was right in the end.
The anomaly was due only to a clear excess of anticipation, given that between November and December Bitcoin had risen, while DXY started to fall only at the end of January.
Now the question is: what reaction will Bitcoin have to the new scenario?
For now, a dynamic somewhat similar to that of the end of 2024 seems plausible, namely an excess of anticipation by the crypto markets compared to the possible future movements of the Dollar Index.
However, if the small rebound of DXY were actually running out, this time the crypto markets might not be ahead by months, but perhaps only by days, or weeks.
