#BTC再创新高 The Mystery of Bitcoin Surge: Main Forces Coming? Or Policy Implications?

The recent surge of #BTC is still unclear in terms of its reasons. Bitcoin reached a new high, yet Powell did not speak, and the Federal Reserve remained silent. The truth may be that there are too many short positions at high levels and the market sentiment is too bearish, allowing the main forces to take advantage of the news from the "Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission" for a surprise attack. This is somewhat similar to Xi Jinping's blockchain speech in 2019, which directly led to a 40% surge ($7000-$10000), but at that time, the market was still at the bottom and the trend was mainly driven by retail sentiment.

This time is different; the current price is at a relatively high point, and the influence of retail investors on the market is weak, with institutional control accounting for over 70%. Although there has been no official announcement from the policy side, signals such as the easing of stablecoin policies have been released, possibly indicating a pre-heating phase.

Assuming the "strength" of this round of policy signals is close to that of the 2019 wave, the trend may last 7-14 days, followed by a pullback of 10%-30%. However, since this time it is led by institutions, the pace of the rise may be more "rational," and the pullback may not be as sharp. But if the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is only making a "statement of consideration" without any substantial actions, it is highly likely that the market will return to its mean, similar to 2019.

In summary: there may still be emotional inertia in the short term, but there is a high probability of a 10%-20% pullback within 1-2 weeks; the magnitude of the pullback may be more moderate, depending on policy developments and external risks; it is not advisable to chase high prices, but to clearly understand the position and be wary of the "vacuum period" after policy-driven movements.

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