This Bitcoin trend feels like riding a rocket, but will the rocket stall midway? Let's delve into it today!

News: Good news is piling up, but don’t get carried away!

Recently, there have been so many positive news in the crypto space that it could fill a book — the U.S. may issue 'legal IDs' for cryptocurrencies (the Digital Asset Transparency Act is about to be reviewed), institutional giant BlackRock is frantically buying Bitcoin with $50 billion in ETF funds, even Amazon is overshadowed by the total market cap of cryptocurrencies (which is $2.36 trillion). But there’s a detail that many overlook: although trading is banned in China, personal holding hasn’t been completely crushed, indicating that policy risks aren’t as scary, and may actually encourage off-market funds to enter.

But I need to cool things down a bit — the entire network saw a liquidation of $1.2 billion yesterday, with 90% being shorts that were liquidated, indicating that market sentiment is at an all-time high. Remember last year's Ethereum merge? At that time, everyone was bullish, and it resulted in a 30% crash shortly after. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes; don’t fire all your bullets!

Technical Analysis: after hitting a new high, is it heaven or a trap?

Bitcoin broke through $118,000 today, reaching an all-time high, but crossing the $120,000 hurdle might be harder than you think. Why? Because in the options market, some have already bet that it will reach $140,000 in September, but a surge in derivative trading volume often means increased divergence between bulls and bears. For example, last year when Bitcoin surged to $69,000, it was all bullish, yet it later halved to $30,000.

However, there is a good signal this time — the daily RSI hasn't reached the overbought zone, indicating there is still room for growth. But the 4-hour MACD has already shown signs of divergence; if it can't break through 120,000 with volume tonight, it might need to pull back to around 115,000 to catch its breath.

Sentiment Analysis: bullish in the short term, but don’t be a 'gambler'

My judgment is: tonight it’s highly likely to push towards $120,000, but don’t expect a straight upward surge. Institutional funds are supporting the bottom, but retail sentiment is too exuberant, easily triggering a 'roller coaster' effect. In terms of operations, I suggest:

  • Light position players: wait for a pullback to around $115,000 to enter in batches, set a stop-loss at $113,000;

  • Long-term players: ignore the volatility and just hold on; BlackRock has already purchased 700,000 units, so why rush?

Lastly, let me share a true story: last week, a fan reached out to me, saying they went all in when they saw Bitcoin rise by 10%, but the same day it pulled back 5%, and they completely lost their cool. Remember: in the crypto world, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits.


If you're still losing in the crypto space, then one thing I often say is: 'It’s not that you can’t do it, it’s that your method is wrong.' I have perfected this rolling recovery model. I can share it, but only with those who are serious about turning their situation around. No time-wasters, please.#BTC再创新高 #山寨季何时到来