According to Deep Tide TechFlow news, on July 11, Matrixport released a weekly report analyzing that Bitcoin has set a new historical high, but unlike past trends, this round of increase has not been driven by leverage, and retail investor sentiment remains unexpectedly calm. Meanwhile, ETE funds continue to flow steadily, and the Federal Reserve is facing ongoing pressure from the political level, with crucial CPI data to be released in the coming days. July is a strong season for Bitcoin, and with the arrival of 'Crypto Policy Week' in Washington, the market is witnessing a rare resonance of macroeconomic and regulatory positives. In this context, the (GENIUS Act) is accelerating its review process in Congress, expected to have a substantial impact on stablecoin regulation and the popularity of digital assets.
In the last issue (Matrix on Target), we posed a key question: 'Is Bitcoin entering the next trading range?' Now, with prices hitting a new all-time high, this judgment has been validated. Multiple positive catalysts are emerging, laying a solid foundation for an upward trend in the coming months. In our report, we pointed out that Bitcoin has broken through a key trend line, releasing a strong technical breakout signal. Since mid-April, Bitcoin ETFs have continuously attracted capital inflows. Since their launch in January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated $49 billion in funds, and structural capital has begun to steadily build positions.
The Federal Reserve previously judged that the new round of tariff policies promoted by Trump would bring inflationary pressure. On the day of 'Liberation Day' in April this year, after the relevant policies were officially announced, consumer sentiment became cautious, and short-term inflation expectations rose. However, from the actual data, inflationary pressure has not materialized, remaining overall in a moderate range. The last three CPI data releases have all been at 2.4% or below, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target; and they have consecutively fallen below market expectations, significantly alleviating concerns about inflation rebound.
The FOMC meeting minutes from June 17 to 18 show that Federal Reserve officials generally lean towards starting interest rate cuts, although there are still some internal disagreements. On the day the minutes were released, Bitcoin rose by 2%. The market currently widely expects two rate cuts within the year, with the first cut possibly happening in September. If inflation data next week does not show a significant rebound, Powell will face greater market and political pressure and must provide a clear explanation for his continued hawkish stance.
This round of Bitcoin rise is markedly different from the common 'retail leverage peak' seen at previous highs, with overall leverage usage being limited and funding rates only slightly positive. The real driving force comes from the continuous inflow of spot ETE and corporate allocation demand. Open interest has gently increased with prices, but no significant new leveraged long positions have entered the market. Despite reaching an all-time high, most traders still maintain light positions, and the market is far from being crowded. Currently, in terms of capital, ETFs have accumulated a net inflow of $49 billion; on the policy side, a shift to easing is expected, and CPI is anticipated to remain moderate; in terms of regulation, the (GENIUS Act) is also expected to achieve substantial breakthroughs next week. Coupled with the seasonal advantages of July, the market is witnessing a rare resonance of multiple positives. However, from the position structure and price trend, the market has not fully priced in the aforementioned positives, and there remains room for further fermentation.
