The ETHBTC pair has been in a continuous downtrend for the past two and a half years, with bearish momentum dominating since the peak in December 2021. However, this phase seems to have officially ended. In April 2025, the long-term bear market cycle ends, ushering in what could be one of the most significant bullish reversals in recent cryptocurrency history.

After breaking the downtrend structure, Ethereum not only achieved a clean bullish breakout but also confirmed its strength through a typical higher low pattern — a fundamental element of any trend reversal. Notably, we have seen three consecutive bullish weeks on the ETHBTC weekly chart, indicating sustained accumulation and strong bullish intent. From a technical perspective, this marks a shift in market structure and confirms the beginning of a new bullish phase.

📈 'Return to Benchmark' Target — Clear 200% Potential

Our mid-term forecast revolves around the so-called 'Return to Benchmark' trend. This refers to the price range of Ethereum/Bitcoin during the sideways movement in the distribution phase of 2020-2021. This range acted as a ceiling throughout the cycle, just like all significant resistance levels, it needs to be retested. Returning to this consolidation range would represent a 200% increase from current levels — a realistic and technically sound target as Ethereum regains dominance.

This area is not just a technical target; it is also a psychological and structural milestone, representing the point where the previous cycle stalled before Bitcoin took dominance. Against the backdrop of Ethereum's upcoming catalysts, re-entering this range would be a natural step to rebalance the ETHBTC dynamic.

🧾 Macro Catalysts: Ethereum ETF Approval on the Horizon

While Bitcoin has gained institutional support from the approval of the US spot ETF, Ethereum is following closely behind. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has indicated readiness to approve spot Ethereum ETFs, with several issuers, including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale, actively preparing. These instruments are expected to unlock significant institutional demand and, more importantly, will validate Ethereum as an investable, regulated asset from a traditional capital perspective.

This shift has significant implications. Not only could Ethereum surpass Bitcoin in relative strength, but its broader decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, and smart contract ecosystem also offers additional utility that Bitcoin lacks. With the expansion of institutional funds, ETH may become the preferred choice for diversified strategies — especially within Ethereum-focused portfolios.

🕰️ Historical Analogies and Long-term Goals

The current price action is very similar to what occurred in 2019-2020. At that time, ETHBTC bottomed in September 2019, forming higher lows, and surged by 447% before the peak of the 2021 bull market. A similar structural pattern is now emerging, but this time the pace may be faster, supported by increased liquidity, stronger infrastructure, and institutional backing.

We now have two high-confidence long-term targets:

Target 1: 0.13207 — Up 442% from current levels. This is based on realistic upper limits from historical Fibonacci extensions and previous cycle peaks.

Target 2: 0.20278 — A long-term goal with a potential of 733%. Although aggressive, this target is achievable if Ethereum significantly outperforms Bitcoin in the latter half of this bull market.

⏳ Timeline and Outlook

The bullish cycle of ETHBTC may unfold within 4 to 6 months — although this could extend to a 12-month super trend if institutional momentum grows slowly. In any case, both technical and macro signals are aligned: Ethereum is poised for strong performance.

This rally will not only boost Ethereum but may also mark the beginning of a broader altcoin season. Bitcoin will continue to grow, but Ethereum and the altcoin market may see larger gains on a relative basis.

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