This question is worth talking about seriously. Because it is not only related to your wallet, but also related to your understanding of the future.
I. Why did Bitcoin reach a new historical high again?
Let's first review what happened behind this wave of Bitcoin's rise:
1. Continuous inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF
In early 2024, the US SEC finally approved the first batch of Bitcoin spot ETFs. Major Wall Street institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity quickly issued products, and institutional investors officially entered the market "legally", attracting a large amount of traditional capital allocation. As of now, US Bitcoin spot ETFs hold more than 1.2 million BTC in total, close to 6% of the circulating supply, and the supply and demand relationship is seriously imbalanced, pushing up prices.
2. Bitcoin's fourth halving effect
In April 2024, Bitcoin ushered in its fourth block reward halving. Miners' rewards dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, and the supply rate plummeted, while demand is rising. This led to a familiar scene in history: "Halving output + rising demand = soaring prices".
3. Global risk-aversion assets are being re-priced
The tense geopolitical situation and the lingering shadow of inflation, coupled with the fact that central banks around the world are maintaining high interest rates and even brewing digital currency reforms, are making more and more people rethink the long-term storage of wealth. Bitcoin is regarded by many as "digital gold" and is even beginning to replace some gold asset allocation.
4. US National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (and listed company treasury plan)
After Trump took office, he was determined to build the United States into the cryptocurrency capital of the world and began to introduce a series of cryptocurrency policies, such as the "National Bitcoin Strategic Reserve," which led many countries to follow suit, and even many global listed companies rushed to imitate; the "Stablecoin Act" should pass the House of Representatives vote next week, etc...
All of this has changed the "supply and demand relationship" of Bitcoin. The price is essentially determined by the supply and demand relationship. Therefore, we see that although the Federal Reserve has not released water, Bitcoin has been unstoppable upward.
II. Is it still suitable to buy Bitcoin now?
This is a high-frequency question. Let's change the question:
If you are not investing in Bitcoin now, but investing in "future financial infrastructure", or "investing in a very promising company but need to lock up your shares for 5~10 years before they can be unbanned", would you hesitate? Let's analyze the reasons below:
1. Long-term value has not yet been realized
The total amount of Bitcoin will always be only 21 million, and about 93% has been mined so far. The supply is written in the code. As more and more institutions and countries include Bitcoin in their asset reserves, the situation of one coin being hard to find in the future is not an exaggeration. Morgan founder Anthony Pompliano once said: "One million US dollars for Bitcoin in the future is a conservative estimate."
2. What you didn't buy is "time", not "price"
Many people always say: "If only I had..."
But in fact, when Bitcoin was at $8,000 in January 2020, a bunch of people said it was too expensive; when it rose to $60,000 in 2021, a bunch of people shouted about a bubble. The focus is not on the price, but whether you believe in its future and are willing to hold it for a long time.
3. Bitcoin is not a speculative tool, but a means of saving
The smart thing to do is not to "ALL IN", but to buy periodically and stick to it, just like American families invest in 401Ks. The famous economist Saifedean Ammous calls Bitcoin: "The soundest monetary system and the only solution to combat fiat currency devaluation."
The best time to plant a tree was ten years ago, and the second best time is now. But if you just want to speculate and gamble on a short-term opportunity, my advice is not to enter the market, because you will definitely lose everything. After you come in, you will find that a bunch of altcoins rise 30% today, 50% tomorrow, and double the day after tomorrow. You will definitely forget your original intention, and under the greed of human nature, you will definitely go to various high-stakes bets. The final result is likely to be that you lose everything.
III. Don't blindly FOMO (fear of missing out)
Of course, rational investment is ten thousand times more important than "all in".
According to the past four rounds of bull and bear experience in the currency circle, the current risks cannot be ignored, because the decline of Bitcoin after each round of bull market turning into bear market is between 70% and 90%. The following is the data I have compiled:
How is it? Did you pour a bucket of cold water on yourself again, who was just about to go all in? Do you still want to rush in now? Can you accept the risk of losing more than 50% of your hard-earned money? But, looking at it the other way around, Bitcoin has never failed anyone. No matter when you bought it, as long as you haven't sold it, you are now in positive returns. However, from the perspective of a mature investor, the best solution is to start a fixed investment during a bear market!
Of course, there are now many voices saying that the current environment is different from the "barbaric growth" era of earlier years. The regular army of Wall Street has already entered the market, and Bitcoin has entered the mainstream financial market, etc.; indeed, the current environment is the best era that Bitcoin has experienced since its birth, and it is possible that it will only have small corrections like the US stock market from now on, and go up all the way to a 10-year bull market, but why does this sentence sound so familiar? Isn't this how the media reported in the last bull market? Please understand it yourself!
(#Bitcoin adoption at 3% in 2025. This is equivalent to social media users in 2005 or internet users in 1990.)
IV. The key is not "is it too late", but "are you ready?"
When you ask "Can I still buy it?", the subtext is actually: "I'm afraid it will fall after I buy it, and I'm afraid I'll miss the opportunity." But truly smart people don't chase ups and downs, but understand the logic behind the trend and quietly wait for the compound interest of time in the right position.
Don't forget that people who bought Bitcoin for $1 in 2011 also experienced:
•Boom and bust in 2013
•The crackdown of Document 94 in 2017
•The winter of 2018 was long
•FTX crash and explosion in 2022
But as long as they hold on to it, they are free people now.
V. A few more words at the end
Investing in Bitcoin is a practice of mentality. Instead of worrying about buying points every day, it is better to calm down and think:
•Why should I allocate Bitcoin?
•How strong is my risk tolerance?
•How long do I want to hold it?
If you can answer these questions honestly, then you are already ahead of 90% of the people. After all, Bitcoin is not a shortcut to "get rich quickly", but an opportunity to "get rich slowly". Is now the best time? No one can know.
But what we can be sure of is that one day in the future, you will thank yourself for being clear-headed and investing prudently in the present.
#币安Alpha上新 #ETH突破3000 #币安钱包TGE
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