🧐The Mystery of the Sudden Surge: A Major Assault? Or Policy Hints?

This sudden surge of #BTC is honestly still unclear in its reasons. #BTC再创新高 Powell hasn't spoken, and the Federal Reserve hasn't made any moves. The truth might be that there are too many short positions at high levels and market sentiment is too bearish, allowing the major players to take advantage of the news from the 'Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission' for a surprise attack. #币安八周年

It's somewhat similar to when Xi Jinping talked about blockchain in 2019—back then, it directly surged by 40%, but the market was still at the bottom and there were many retail investors.

This time is different:

Current prices are relatively high

Retail investors have exited, and institutions control over 70% of the market

Although there hasn't been an official announcement, signals such as the easing of stablecoin policies have been released, possibly heating things up in advance.

Assuming the 'strength' of this policy signal is close to that of the 2019 wave, the market may only last 7-14 days, followed by a correction of 10%-30%.

However, since this is institution-led, the pace of the rise may be more 'rational,' and the correction may not be as severe. But if the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is only 'considering' and takes no substantial action, it is likely to return to the mean, much like in 2019.

📌 To summarize:

In the short term, there may still be emotional inertia, but there is a high probability of a 10%-15% correction within 1-2 weeks.

The extent of the correction may be milder, depending on policy progress and external risks.

In terms of operations, do not chase highs, see the position clearly, and beware of the 'vacuum period' after policy-driven movements.