1. Market Observation
U.S. President Trump recently announced that tariffs of 15% to 20% will be imposed on most trading partners, and starting August 1, a 35% tariff will be added to imports from Canada, causing significant short-term fluctuations in the USD/CAD exchange rate. Although the EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs exceeding $100 billion and ongoing negotiations, the market's response has been relatively calm, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices setting new highs on Thursday, and Nvidia's market capitalization surpassing $4 trillion for the first time. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the market may be overly complacent about the tariff threats and predicts a 40%-50% probability of Fed rate hikes, much higher than the market's expected 20%. His reasoning includes tariff policies, budget deficits, and potential inflationary pressures from global trade restructurings. There is significant divergence within the Fed regarding policy paths; while Chairman Powell has hinted at the possibility of rate cuts by the end of summer, officials still debate whether tariffs will raise inflation. St. Louis Fed President Bullard believes that the impact of tariffs is still unclear, while San Francisco Fed President Daly maintains expectations for two rate cuts this year. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos pointed out that the Fed is facing a critical data validation period, where inflation readings in the coming months will determine the policy direction. Meanwhile, investors are turning their attention to the second-quarter earnings season, with Bloomberg expecting only a 2% growth in S&P 500 corporate earnings, but HSBC strategist Max Kettner believes that pessimistic expectations are exaggerated, and a weaker dollar along with improved earnings guidance could bring positive surprises.
Regarding digital asset policy in Hong Kong, HashKey Group's chief analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that the (Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0) clearly incorporates digital assets into the global financial center strategy, advancing stablecoin licensing, on-chain RWA practices, and tokenized asset tax exemptions. HashKey Group is actively participating in the transformation process, including collaborating with Bosera Fund to issue tokenized currency fund ETFs for real RWA transactions; supporting compliant listings and custody structure designs for multiple stablecoins; and building an open, audit-friendly on-chain channel around HashKey Chain to promote the mapping and circulation of traditional financial assets.
Bitcoin maintained its strength after reaching a new high of $112,000 on Wednesday and broke through $117,000 this morning. Trader Eugene pointed out that the price needs to break out above $115,000 in volume to confirm an accelerated upward trend. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin 'accumulation addresses' hold 248,000 BTC, with a 71% increase in 30 days. Analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly predicts that large-scale profit-taking is unlikely until the price reaches $130,900 based on the MVRV indicator, while Glassnode has monitored a growth of $4.3 billion in actual market value, confirming continued capital inflow. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, emphasized that driven by macro factors such as Trump's pressure for rate cuts, Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed over $15 billion since April; his trend model indicates a 60% probability of continuing to rise by 20% in the next two months, potentially reaching $133,000 in September. Kyle Reidhead, co-founder of Milk Road, is optimistic about a rise to $150,000 based on the cup and handle pattern. On the Ethereum front, after large whale and institutional purchases totaling $358 million pushed the price above $2,800 yesterday, it broke past $3,000 this morning, with Ethereum ETF trading volume showing a net inflow of $383 million, the second highest in history. Trader Eugene pointed out that in the past three instances of breaking above $2,800, prices quickly rose to around $4,000, and analyst Rekt Capital believes Ethereum has returned to the macro range of $2,200 to $3,900 and maintains an upward trend.
The altcoin market is experiencing a much-awaited rally driven by Bitcoin's new highs, which has also led to continued liquidity for tokens announced for listing by exchanges. Among them, the Hyperlane token HYPER rose over 455% within 24 hours after being listed on Upbit, making it the top trading volume on the platform, surpassing the second place XRP by nearly five times; Binance's announcement of listing Infinity Ground and CROSS perpetual contracts also drove the prices of tokens AIN up by 105.9% and CROSS by 71%. Additionally, the recently discussed Banana BANANAS31 on the BNB Chain saw its price nearly double within 24 hours, but has now narrowed its increase to 40%, while MemeCore token M increased by over 80% in 24 hours; at the same time, the Viction token VIC has more than doubled in the last week; and the trading volume of the blue-chip NFT project Pudgy Penguins has also continued to rise, with a price increase of 130% in two weeks. Pump.fun announced yesterday the acquisition of the Solana-based tool Kolscan, causing the market cap of the eponymous token to spike to $21 million before retreating to $5.9 million, with a 24-hour increase of 1,816%. It is worth noting that Pump.fun will conduct its ICO at 10 PM on July 12, with multiple on-chain traders taking leveraged short positions on PUMP.
2. Key Data (as of July 11, 12:00 HKT)
(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $116,539 (year-to-date +24.97%), daily spot trading volume of $61.806 billion.
Ethereum: $2,968.02 (year-to-date -11.02%), daily spot trading volume of $40.603 billion.
Fear and Greed Index: 72 (Greed)
Average GAS: BTC: 0.55 sat/vB, ETH: 2.36 Gwei
Market share: BTC 63.8%, ETH 9.8%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: HYPER, XRP, BTC, ETH, PENGU
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 1.0777
Sector performance: Meme sector up 12.87%; NFT sector up 11.8%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 240,219 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of $1.136 billion, including $592 million in BTC, $242 million in ETH, and $41.25 million in HYPER.
BTC medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line (111,234.12 USD), lower line (109,031.46 USD)
ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line (2,678.38 USD), lower line (2,625.34 USD)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of July 10)
Bitcoin ETF: +$1.179 billion, the second highest in history.
Ethereum ETF: +$383 million, the second highest in history.
4. Today's Outlook
Binance will launch CROSSUSDT and AINUSDT perpetual contracts on July 11.
pump.fun: PUMP will launch its initial token issuance on July 12, with 15% allocated for public ICO sale.
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8 AM on July 11, accounting for 1.31% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $10.1 million.
io.net (IO) will unlock approximately 13.29 million tokens at 8 PM on July 11, accounting for 7.87% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $9.1 million.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 50 million tokens at 8 PM on July 11, accounting for 1.92% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $7.7 million.
Delysium (AGI) will unlock approximately 10.6 million tokens at 8 AM on July 11, accounting for 5.97% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $5.4 million.
Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens at 10 PM on July 12, accounting for 1.75% of the current circulating supply, valued at about $49.9 million.
Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock approximately 20.81 million tokens at 8 AM on July 13, valued at about $17.4 million.
Today's top 500 market cap performers: Omni Network (OMNI) up 195.50%, Hyperlane (HYPER) up 97.00%, CROSS (CROSS) up 70.72%, MemeCore (M) up 64.49%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up 55.88%.
5. Hot News
HYPER trading volume on Upbit is the highest, surpassing the second place by nearly five times, with HYPER up 455% in 24 hours.
The Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a study session focusing on the development trends and response strategies regarding cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.
Public company SharpLink Gaming today increased its holdings by 12,648 ETH, worth $35.31 million.
Grayscale has updated its 'proposed asset list', including 31 types of tokens for review.
Whale AguilaTrades has increased its BTC long position to $347 million, currently yielding a floating profit of $20.11 million.
The Cardano Foundation's total assets have reached $659 million, of which 76.7% is in ADA and 15% is in Bitcoin.
BNB has completed its 32nd quarterly burn, valued at approximately $1.024 billion.
CryptoQuant: U.S. buying has boosted Bitcoin to new highs, and the bullish market sentiment may not be over yet.
Justin Sun has pledged to purchase $100 million worth of TRUMP tokens.
YZi Labs will support investment institution 10X Capital in establishing a financial company for BNB listings in the U.S.
Thumzup will include 6 tokens including ETH, XRP, and DOGE in a Bitcoin-dominated corporate treasury.
Upbit will launch HYPER in the South Korean won market and BABY in the BTC and USDT markets.
This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted fiat portal for crypto assets in Asia. It aims to define a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, financial security, and platform assurance.
