Bitcoin price just surged past $116,000, registering a new all-time high above its May 2025 peak. But unlike last time, this rally has a strong institutional tailwind.
South Korea’s K Wave Media has reportedly acquired 88 BTC as part of a larger $1 billion treasury plan. The question now is — can this BTC price breakout avoid the same fate as May’s meltdown to $98,000? Let’s decode the on-chain and chart data.
Exchange Inflows Drop; Where’s the Selling?
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s exchange inflows have plummeted to just 3,2000 BTC per day (at the time of writing), the lowest since 2015. Back in December 2024, this number was around 97,000 BTC during the $100,000 Bitcoin price breakout.
BTC price and exchange inflows: CryptoQuant
That’s a massive decline. Even at this new ATH, holders simply aren’t moving their coins to exchanges; a clear sign of low sell pressure and asset confidence.
Exchange inflows track the number of coins sent to exchanges, typically to sell. A sharp drop here signals confidence: whales and retailers are not looking to exit, at least not yet. And that alone makes a May-like dump less likely, structurally.
Moreover, in an interview with BeInCrypto, Alexander Zahnd, Ziliqa’s interim CEO, said that the momentum appears to be real.
“In the near term, the momentum appears real – institutional demand is rising, ETF inflows are strong, and companies continue to add Bitcoin to their balance sheet,” Zahnd told BeInCrypto.
Wallet Clusters Offer Support to the Bitcoin Price
Next, let’s talk defense. According to IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP) metric, over 645,000 addresses purchased BTC between $108,795 and $110,624. That’s 476.65K BTC held near current levels, and it forms a major demand wall.
Bitcoin price clusters: IntoTheBlock
In May, the price collapsed because support zones cracked fast. This time, if Bitcoin stays above this address cluster, it means short-term buyers are still in the green. That strengthens conviction.
IOMAP indicates the position of past buyers and whether they are in profit (in the money) or loss (out of the money). When large address clusters overlap with price zones, these areas act as key support or resistance.
RSI Divergence Says “Caution,” But Still No Panic
Here’s the risk. While the BTC price has continued to make higher highs, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has made lower highs — a textbook bearish divergence. This can often precede a correction.
BTC price and RSI divergence: TradingView
However, RSI remains below the overheated zone (under 72), unlike May when it spiked close to 80. That’s the key difference — the divergence exists, but it hasn’t yet reached panic levels. Therefore, a massive correction looks unlikely, but you might want to expect a retracement.
RSI tracks momentum. A divergence between price and RSI indicates fading conviction. But since it’s not yet overbought, the current uptrend may still have fuel left.
Trend-Based Fibonacci Levels Offer Clear Upside Targets
With BTC entering price discovery again (lack of historical reference lines), trend-based Fibonacci extensions help chart potential resistance.
Bitcoin price analysis: TradingView
From the swing low of $74,543 to the May high of $111,980, and considering the retracement to $98,000, we get the following resistance levels:
0.382 at $112,439
0.5 at $116,857
0.618 at $121,274
1.0 at $135,576
Bitcoin’s latest wick near $116,500 aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci extension, suggesting that a Bitcoin price move beyond this resistance level could open up the path toward $121,000 and $135,000. These levels act as guideposts for continuation, but only if momentum sustains.
Bitcoin is now above its May high, supported by lower sell pressure, clear institutional buying, and strong support clusters. The Fibonacci roadmap suggests room for further upside.
But caution is warranted. RSI divergence has emerged. If price loses momentum below $109,632 (one of the key support levels), this breakout might lead to another May-like retracement, invalidating the bullish hypothesis. Let’s see if Bitcoin can flip this ATH into a sustainable rally.
