According to Keyrock's July 10 research report, although Bitcoin financial companies (BTC-TC) cumulatively hold approximately 725,000 BTC, accounting for 3.64% of the total BTC supply. However, research found that during 2025, their daily trading had a negligible average daily impact on spot prices, averaging only 0.59%.
Large-scale institutional purchases have little impact on market trends
The study analyzed the BTC/USDT market using Bernard Kyle's Lambda indicator (quantifying the impact of each unit of trading volume on market prices) and found that large-scale institutional purchases rarely have a significant impact on market prices.
It is worth noting that the Bitcoin financial company group led by Strategy currently holds 597,325 BTC, accounting for 2.84% of the total Bitcoin supply, but the actual market impact is relatively limited.
This seemingly contradictory phenomenon stems from the unique trading methods of institutions. Because most of their transactions rely on structured orders, over-the-counter swap agreements, or physical equity swaps to complete, these operations are not reflected in the public order book.
A typical case is Twenty One Capital, which obtained 42,000 BTC through equity swaps with Tether and Bitfinex, without involving spot market transactions throughout the process.
Data shows that in 2025, institutional centralized purchases led to intraday gains in Bitcoin exceeding 3% in only 6 trading days. In contrast, a large-scale acquisition by Strategy at the end of last year triggered intraday volatility of up to 9.05%. However, most institutions prefer to adopt batch position building or derivatives hedging strategies to effectively control transaction slippage.
Bubble risk that valuation premiums may trigger
However, the report also pointed out the hidden dangers of valuation bubble risk. The group valuation of these Bitcoin financial companies is generally 73% higher than the premium. Although this helps them easily obtain capital, it also increases the refinancing risk when market sentiment changes. Data shows that these companies have outstanding debts of up to US$9.48 billion and preferred shares of US$3.35 billion, and most of the debts will mature in 2027-2028.
What is particularly worrying is that some companies with weak cash flow have begun to rely on issuing stocks at market prices to pay interest. Since November 2024, financing activities that imitate the Strategy model have accelerated, and publicly issued stocks have surged in multiple jurisdictions. Behind this is the benchmark effect of Strategy's 11-fold increase in the price of Bitcoin per share since 2020.
The report ultimately pointed out that current corporate buying behavior plays more of an intermittent catalyst role, rather than a core driving force for sustained price increases. This is mainly due to the effective management of order flow through structured transactions.
However, researchers specifically issued a warning that because 82% of these companies' reserves are concentrated in a single asset, if the major shareholders adjust their strategies, it may trigger violent market fluctuations. This highly concentrated holding structure, coupled with a financing model that relies on the capital market for survival, also makes the entire system particularly vulnerable to market sentiment reversals.
Conclusion:
In summary, although institutional investors such as Strategy hold a large amount of Bitcoin, their direct impact on market prices is relatively small. This is mainly attributed to their adoption of strategies such as structured orders and over-the-counter transactions, which reduces the impact on the public market.
However, these companies' high premium valuations and reliance on the capital market may bring refinancing risks when market sentiment shifts. In addition, the high concentration of Bitcoin holdings may also lead to violent fluctuations in the market in the face of strategic adjustments.
