The bull market is rapidly declining, but today's high-level consolidation shows that the manipulators have their knives at the necks of the retail investors!
The naked truth of the market
Main players draw the dividing line: $116,900 is the line of life and death.
Current price 116,431.44 USDT (only 0.3% away from the previous high of 116,868), but looking up is a minefield!
At the 116,432.65 level, there are 18.5 BTC sell orders (approximately 21 million USD), and worse, there is a visibly stacked super sell wall in the 117,000-118,000 area.
Order ratio -0.20% Description: For every 100 orders, there are 55 bearish orders! Attempting to break through? Better ask if this Bitcoin wall agrees!
MACD hides a killing opportunity:
The golden cross looks beautiful, but the red bars continue to shorten + volume shrinks, a typical 'top divergence trap'—like stepping on the gas pedal but the tachometer doesn't rise, veteran drivers know what this means!
Deadly detail: Buy orders below are as thin as paper.
Below the current price, scattered buy orders in the 115,500-114,000 range indicate clear signs of main player withdrawal. In plain language: if it breaks 115,000, it will trigger a waterfall sell-off!
The Federal Reserve's bomb has dropped; how will BTC respond? (Latest news from early this morning)
Confirmed announcement: Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points! (First time in nearly a decade, global market erupts)
Powell's original words: 'If inflation is controllable, further rate cuts may continue in the second half of the year' (implying that easing won't stop at one round)
Critical interpretation:
Good news: Hot money is frantically buying risk assets.
Under expectations of dollar depreciation, BTC will be the biggest siphon—referencing the historical 300% surge in BTC three months after the 2020 rate cut!
Hidden poison: Good news turns into bad risk.
On the day the rate hike ended in September 2022, BTC plummeted 18% in a single day! Beware of the main players using good news to offload!
Veteran's operation manual (blood and tears experience version)
Today's three scenarios: **
Brutal short squeeze (25% probability)
The manipulators instantly consumed the 116,900 sell orders, with volume surging over three times, targeting directly towards 120,000!
Signal: A single buy order of 500+ BTC (approximately 60 million USD) has appeared, directly chasing the breakout!
Fishing line massacre (60% probability)
False breakout at 116,900 to lure in buyers, then immediately pierce through the 115,000 support level, liquidating leveraged long positions before reversing to rally (referencing June CPI data trends).
Death signal: Over 1.5% drop within 15 minutes + sudden increase in liquidation volume (check the contract big data network).
Sideways accumulation (15% probability)
Playing the loom in the 115,500-116,500 range, waiting for the US stock market to open in the evening to react.
Three rules for survival: **
Breakthrough must see real money: if we don't see sustained volume above 116,900, consider it a false signal!
Stop-loss engraved on the forehead: Must cut positions if it breaks 115,000 (current price is only 1.2% away)!
Position determines life and death:
Spot: Cut position in half if below the 5-day moving average
Contracts: >10x leverage = actively applying for a crematorium ticket
Ending hook:
Latest on-chain alert: 23,000 BTC is being accumulated by whales in the range of 110,000-115,000. This group has a cost basis around 113,000—do you think they are waiting to dump or to rally again?
Tonight at 20:30, I will combine Coinbase large order flow + the latest statements from Federal Reserve officials to unveil the true intentions of the main players!
#BTC再创新高
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