While the global financial markets are still asleep, a 'policy earthquake' triggered by internal games within the Fed has quietly ignited the crypto world! In the early morning of July 11, 2025, Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly successively released strong dovish signals, directly igniting the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin surging over 15% in a single day, and mainstream coins like Ethereum and Solana skyrocketing, causing market sentiment to boil over instantly!
1. Division within the Federal Reserve: Doves on the offensive, rate cut timeline advanced.
At 1 a.m., Fed Governor Waller made a shocking statement during a special meeting: 'Current monetary policy is too tight, conditions for a July rate cut are in place, and this has nothing to do with politics!' This statement directly shattered market expectations of the Fed staying put. Even more shocking was that San Francisco Fed President Daly followed suit, explicitly stating, 'There could be two rate cuts this year, the first cut could happen in the fall!'
You should know that just weeks ago, there was still heated debate within the Federal Reserve about the timing of interest rate cuts. St. Louis Fed President Bullard warned, 'The impact of tariffs needs to be monitored,' but now the dovish forces have gained the upper hand. Waller even stated bluntly, 'Tariffs have not significantly raised inflation, companies are absorbing pressure by sharing costs!' This logic directly contradicts the conservative view that 'tariffs lead to inflation rebound', clearing obstacles for interest rate cuts.
2. Market Reaction: The 'prophet' of the crypto world rejoiced in advance, with funds pouring in wildly.
The dovish shift of the Federal Reserve is tantamount to a 'nuclear bomb-level benefit' for the crypto world!
Liquidity expectations are heating up: A rate cut means the dollar index will come under pressure, and global funds will flow into high-risk assets. Bitcoin, as 'digital gold,' is the first to become a safe haven for funds.
Institutions are accelerating their layouts: According to CoinShares data, on the morning of July 11, cryptocurrency investment products saw over $500 million in net inflows in a single day, setting a new high for the year.
Technical breakout: Bitcoin broke through the key resistance level of $68,000 in the early morning, Ethereum surpassed $3,200, and Solana rose over 20% in a single day, resulting in a 'short squeeze' style rally in the market.
What’s more noteworthy is that this surge aligns closely with the Federal Reserve's policy signals. As veteran traders say, 'The market always reacts before the rate cut, not at the moment of the cut!'
3. Trump's 'Divine Assist': Pressuring the Federal Reserve, Accelerating Policy Shift
The division within the Federal Reserve hints at Trump's shadow behind it. Just before the meeting, Trump publicly criticized Powell: 'Interest rates are at least 3% too high!' and threatened, 'If rates are not cut, I will nominate a new chair.' Although the Fed emphasizes 'independence', the statements from Waller, Daly, and others clearly resonate with White House pressure.
More crucially, Trump's tariff policy is becoming the 'fig leaf' for the Fed's rate cut. Waller bluntly stated, 'Tariffs have not caused inflation to soar!' This conclusion provides an excellent excuse for a rate cut—addressing Trump's political pressure while avoiding the acknowledgment of recession risks.
4. Market Outlook: The rate cut cycle begins, and the bull market in crypto may have just started.
As the timeline for the Fed's first rate cut emerges, the cryptocurrency market will welcome three major catalysts:
Speculative hype before the rate cut: Any dovish remarks before the September meeting could trigger a new round of surges.
Institutional funds continue to pour in: Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have already submitted Bitcoin ETF applications, and the rate cut will accelerate traditional fund entry.
Expectation for Ethereum ETF approval: The U.S. SEC may approve a spot Ethereum ETF in August, further expanding market capacity.
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