Quick Look! On July 11, #BTC the four-hour chart shows a "death signal". How long can you hold your position?
BTC Four-Hour Chart: Peak of Greed, Hidden Crisis
Currently, BTC is in a state of "extreme greed" alongside "declining volume". It appears strong, but the actual risk is extremely high; investors must be vigilant.
Technical Indicator Alerts
Price has broken through the upper band with abnormal premiums, yet volume has collapsed, forming a death cross with MA5. MACD shows a peak divergence, with momentum weaker than price increases; moving average divergence, premium rate exceeds the threshold. RSI1 > 90, with a 93% probability of a pullback at the 4H level.
Five Major Death Signals
BOLL Band Extreme Expansion: Bandwidth > 9000 points, price > upper band 0.8%. There is a high probability of a retracement to the middle band within 8 hours, with a decline of about 4.8%, requiring continuous volume to maintain the premium. RSI1 > 91 Deadly Risk: After historical peaks, BTC has significantly retraced, just 9 hours after the CPI announcement, increasing risk. Triple Divergence: Price slightly rises while volume, MACD bars, and RSI2 diverge, indicating weak upward momentum. Macro Nuclear Countdown: CPI expectation 3.1%, > 3.3% may trigger a long liquidation, < 2.9% is bullish or may cause a pullback due to overbuying. Liquidity Trap: Shallow buying pressure, large selling pressure, slight selling pressure may lead to a flash crash.
Bullish and Bearish Scenario Simulation
CPI Flash Crash: Data > 3.3% and RSI1 < 85, target 110,385, probability 65%, can open short positions or reduce spot holdings. False Breakout Counterattack: Volume < 20 million, target 113,000, probability 25%, take profits in batches and pursue short positions on breaks. Short Squeeze Continuation: CPI < 2.9% and volume > 50 million, target 120,000, probability 10%, increase positions on breakthroughs.
Situation and Operation
BTC appears strong on the surface, but actually has insufficient volume and worsening indicators, with poor liquidity before CPI. Current risk-reward ratio is poor, limited upside potential, and large potential decline. Those holding long should reduce positions by 80% and set stop losses. Those with no positions should place orders to ambush long positions and set stop losses, and can buy straddle options to lock in profits.
Institutional Risk Control
On-chain: Watch for miner selling pressure and exchange inflows. Derivatives: Hedge with short positions when funding rates are high, pay attention to strong long liquidations. Technical: Long defense line at 115,167, short stop loss line at 117,000.
Two hours before CPI announcement, clear out over 3x leverage. RSI1 > 90 when facing CPI may cause the market to fluctuate violently. It is recommended for ordinary investors to stay away, while professional traders should limit positions to ≤2% and use options to construct a "risk-symmetric" portfolio.
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