【Market Outlook on July 10, 2025】

After the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes early this morning, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond only rose slightly by 2 basis points to 4.52%, while Bitcoin surged by 3%—indicating that the market is more focused on the reduction of policy uncertainty itself rather than the direction of interest rates. Overall, there is some resistance to a rate cut in July, but a rate cut in September is basically a certainty, which is positive news. Following this announcement, Bitcoin and Ethereum swiftly rallied. Although Bitcoin has broken its historical high, reaching 112,000, Ethereum has been outperforming Bitcoin in recent days. Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing high-level fluctuations above 110,000. Tomorrow we will enter Friday. I believe that if Bitcoin can still remain above 110,000 before Monday, it can be considered an effective breakthrough; otherwise, it may just be a false breakout. The altcoins have also been showing signs of rising in the past couple of days, and there is still hope for an altcoin season in the second half of the year. There were no significant news events to interpret during the day, except that whale addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) have been continuously increasing their holdings, accumulating 18,000 BTC since July, with an average purchase price concentrated in the range of 105,000 to 108,000 USD.

From a technical perspective: On the weekly level, Bitcoin has broken through the downtrend line since December 2024, and trading volume continues to expand, indicating strong bullish momentum. The 4-hour chart also shows a series of consecutive bullish candlesticks, with strong bullish volume surging and the market sentiment being optimistic. However, the KDJ indicator is gradually forming a tightening dead cross at high levels, and the hourly chart has been continuously closing with long upper shadows, indicating significant short-term pressure above. Coupled with the gradual decline in daytime trading volume, it will be more challenging to continue breaking upward. For now, we will treat this as a range and wait for a breakout to readjust our strategy.

Although Ethereum's price tested the 2820 level today, it has not deviated very far and will continue to follow Bitcoin's technical reference range in the short term. Day trading operations should focus on the upper band of the daily line and the 7-day moving average range for entry.

Bitcoin 4h Support: 109,500 Resistance: 111,875

Ethereum 4h Support: 2,745 Resistance: 2,825

Today's Fear Index: 72 (Greed) 4-hour Long/Short Ratio: 48.2% / 51.8%

Day's Hot News:

🪅 Analyst: Bitcoin still has room to rise further towards 120,000 USD

🪅 Thumzup adds assets like ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE to its crypto treasury

🪅 The SEC has delayed approval of BlackRock's physical redemption method for its spot Ethereum ETF.