BTC evening trend precise analysis: 110800 becomes the dividing line for long and short positions, key data reveals future market direction
— Crypto Judge K-line Practical Analysis

One, Core Conclusions First

Based on current technicals and market sentiment comprehensive judgment:
BTC is likely to form short-term support around 110800, with a 75% probability to hold tonight, but beware of false break risks at the resistance level of 112000. If trading volume cooperates, the upper target looks to 114000; if it breaks down below the integer level of 110000, it may retest the strong support level of 108000.

Two, Technical Analysis Deep Dive

1. Key Price Levels and Pattern Verification

Support levels: 108273 (lower edge of historical dense trading area), 109598 (4-hour Bollinger Band midline)

Resistance levels: 112036 (previous high + volume exhaustion point)

Current price: $111,141 (as of 19:54)

Market Details:

Broke 112000 in the early morning and quickly fell back, the solid bullish line only slightly closed above the previous high, trading volume shrank by 23% compared to the previous high, consistent with 'false breakout' technical characteristics.

4-hour level forms 'Ascending Triangle' pattern, the retracement has not exceeded 50% of the rally segment, showing strong will of the main force.

2. Indicator Signal Cross-Validation

MACD: Daily level golden cross continues, but 4-hour lines show high-level dullness, need to be wary of top divergence risk.

RSI: Daily RSI value 72 (Greed Zone), 4-hour RSI value 68, no signs of overbought divergence, but need to pay attention to whether a double top forms on the 60-minute level.

Moving Average System: MA5/MA20/MA60 bullish arrangement is solid, a pullback to MA20 (around 109500) is a low absorption opportunity.

1. Sentiment: Greed is warming up but not out of control

Crypto Fear and Greed Index: 71 (yesterday 66), greed sentiment dominates but hasn't reached extreme levels.

Derivatives Data:

Open interest slightly decreased by 0.16%, long-short ratio 1.2:1, no signs of crowded trading.

24-hour liquidation: Short positions liquidated $18.22 million, long positions only $6.16 million, market is in the later stage of 'short squeeze'.

2. Capital: Institutions continue to increase positions

Bitcoin Spot ETF: Net inflow for 5 consecutive days, with a net inflow of $218 million yesterday, Grayscale GBTC discount rate narrowed to 12%.

Ethereum Spot ETF: Net inflow for 4 consecutive days, institutional allocation preference shifts from BTC to ETH.

Whale movements: Address '0x35fb' withdraws 54,125 ETH ($151 million) from Kraken in one day, altcoin funds may divert BTC heat.

Four, Major Events and Risk Warnings

1. Positive Factors

US Regulatory Easing: SEC confirms Bitwise ETF physical redemption amendment, compliance channel expansion benefits long-term holders.

Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: July meeting minutes show 'if data meets expectations, support for rate cut in August', liquidity easing expectations support risk assets.

2. Potential Risks

GMX Hacking Incident: $40 million loss causes panic in DeFi sector, beware of ETH's correlation to BTC pullback.

Trump Tariff Policy: Imposes a 50% tariff on Brazil and copper, emerging market capital may accelerate the turn to crypto assets for hedging, but may trigger short-term dollar volatility.

Five, K-line Judge: Supreme Exclusive Strategy!

  1. Aggressive Strategy:

    • Current price around 111100, lightly long positions, stop loss at 110000, target 112000-112500.

    • Chase long positions after breaking 112000, stop loss at previous high 111500, target 114000.

  2. Steady Strategy:

    • Wait for a pullback in the 109500-110000 range, combined with 4-hour MA20 support for low absorption, stop loss at 108000, target 112000.

  3. Risk Warning:

    • If it cannot stabilize above 111000 before 22:00, the probability increases to 60%, need to be wary of night market US stock correlation decline.

Six, Data Verification and Real-Time Tracking

Key Observation Window: 20:30 US initial jobless claims (expected 235,000), 22:30 EIA natural gas inventory (expected 58 billion cubic feet).

Market signals: Watch if BTC forms a 'Morning Star' K-line combination above 110000, or breaks down and closes with an 'Engulfing Pattern'.

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