Crypto asset management firm 21Shares' latest report states that if there are no major black swan events disrupting the market, Bitcoin still has upward potential, with expectations to break $30,000 by the end of this year, representing about a 60% increase from the current price level. For more detailed information, please see the main text below.

In times of unresolved inflation pressure and crumbling policy trust, Bitcoin is facing market volatility with unprecedented resilience. A recent report from crypto asset management firm 21Shares indicates that without major black swan events, Bitcoin still has upward potential. By the end of this year, it is expected to break $130,000, representing about a 60% increase from the current price level.

History repeating? Market structure resembles that of 2021.

21Shares points out in its report that the current market cycle for Bitcoin is highly similar to that of 2021. At that time, China's ban on cryptocurrency mining disrupted the market rhythm but did not change the bullish pattern. Now, due to the collapse of confidence in macro policies and a rebound in global liquidity, Bitcoin remains strong. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $87,400, up more than 5% from slightly above $83,152 at the beginning of the month.

The storm is no longer a negative; Bitcoin is moving closer to being viewed as a 'safe-haven asset'.

Unlike past cycles, the Bitcoin market is showing a significant change in its response to market shocks. For example, in the face of systemic crises like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the market did not show panic selling. Instead, it tends to view Bitcoin as a hedge against 'traditional financial risks', and its 'hedging properties' are deepening amid global turmoil. 21Shares points out that in countries like Argentina and Turkey, which are mired in inflation, Bitcoin adoption is rising, further validating this asset's role as a hedging tool in specific economic systems.

The market learns to distinguish between 'centralized failures' and 'decentralized value'.

Bitcoin is no longer 'kidnapped' by crisis events on cryptocurrency platforms. Earlier, Bybit suffered a hacker attack, but this did not shake the market's confidence in Bitcoin. 21Shares believes that the market now seems better able to distinguish between 'operational risks of centralized platforms' and Bitcoin's 'intrinsic value as a decentralized protocol', as the two are no longer viewed as one.

On-chain data and favorable policies are converging, making the continuation of the bull market likely.

From observing on-chain data, it can be seen that current long-term holders are stable in their holding behavior, with strong accumulation sentiment. 21Shares believes that Bitcoin is in a 'consolidation phase' and has not yet reached the peak of this cycle.

On the other hand, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs is increasing, the regulatory environment is becoming clearer, and the degree of integration with traditional finance continues to deepen, providing momentum for this rebound.

Although Bitcoin may still experience a pullback in the short term, with a potential drop to around the 200-day moving average of $77,000, overall, 21Shares remains optimistic about the future market and predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $138,555 by the end of 2025, representing about a 58% increase from the current price level. This is the detailed analysis from 21Shares: the bull market is expected to continue! For more information on Bitcoin's rising adoption rate, please follow other related articles by Liang Ge #美国加征关税 $BTC