As the Bitcoin market releases strong bullish signals, many investors may not be prepared for the next upward move. Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, predicts that Bitcoin is expected to challenge $133,000 in September and warns that the market's current bullish positions may still be too conservative.
Bullish but no one dares to heavily bet?
According to the Bitcoin trend model forecast from 10x Research, there is a 60% chance that Bitcoin will continue to rise over the next two months, with an upside potential of 20%. Markus Thielen pointed out:
We still maintain a bullish stance, especially after the options expiration last month, where risk exposure has significantly decreased. Traders are currently mainly buying call options, indicating that they are not fully capitalizing on Bitcoin's further upward opportunities.
When traders buy a large number of call options, it may seem bullish on the surface, but it actually reflects a situation of 'bullish but not heavily invested', as compared to directly buying spot or establishing futures long positions, buying call options is a way to participate in a rising market with 'low cost and low risk'; investors only need to pay the premium to gain potential rewards without the obligation to bear the price volatility risk of substantial positions.
Technical indicators turn bullish, momentum continues
Earlier today, Bitcoin strongly refreshed its historical high, briefly reaching $112,000. According to Markus Thielen's observations, the Bitcoin trend model has been bullish since June 29, and the technical breakout shows continuation momentum:
Our trading model shows that after this short-term breakout, there is still a 60% chance of continued upward movement, with similar historical patterns averaging an increase of about 20%.
If Bitcoin rises 20% from the current approximately $111,000, the target price will aim directly at $133,000. Markus Thielen believes this indicates that Bitcoin is gradually entering a higher trading range.
Markus Thielen also mentioned that factors driving Bitcoin's rise in the coming weeks include:
U.S. CPI data is about to be released: The latest inflation data will be published on July 15, with market expectations leaning towards 'moderate', benefiting the continued rise of risk assets.
Policy Favorable: The U.S. Congress will begin 'Crypto Week' next week, where it will review key legislation on stablecoin regulation, digital asset taxation, and other critical issues, leading to a friendlier policy atmosphere.
Is Q3 typically weak?
According to CoinGlass data, since 2013, Bitcoin's average performance in the third quarter has only yielded an increase of 5.84%, making it a relatively weak quarter. However, Markus Thielen believes this year's trend may break the pattern.
Those investors still watching from the sidelines may miss key turning points that define the entire quarter's market.
He emphasized that the continuous influx of ETF funds, coupled with a series of favorable policies, has put Bitcoin in a 'breakout period'.
"Forecast 'Bitcoin to soar to $133,000 in September'! Analyst: Fear of missing the market with bullish sentiment" This article was first published on (Blockcast).
