Hello everyone, I am Iron Eagle. Early in the morning, the Fed suddenly released signals for a rate cut, and ETH violently surged 100 points, approaching $2800! But the tariff bomb from Trump detonated simultaneously, leading to fierce battles between bulls and bears. At this moment, fans are most anxious to ask: Will ETH break through 2800 and start a bull market, or fall back to the abyss of 2700? As a senior financial analyst, I will analyze the market from the perspectives of news, technical analysis, and main force movements!
News aspect: Interest rate cut winds overpower tariff negatives, ETH gains epic-level fuel.
The Fed's 'dovish voice' becomes the core of the surge.
The Fed's June minutes first mentioned 'considering a rate cut at the next meeting', and most officials believe a rate cut in 2025 is appropriate!
Iron Eagle interpretation:
Interest rate cut expectations soar: The market bets on over 80% probability of a rate cut in September, the dollar index plummets, and risk assets rejoice.
ETH benefit logic: As a high-growth 'tech asset', rate cuts directly reduce financing costs, benefiting Layer 2, DeFi, and other ecological expansions (historical data shows that ETH averages over 300% increase during easing cycles).
Key detail: The minutes state that the impact of tariffs on inflation is 'temporary'—diminishing Trump's negatives, and bulls dare to take bold actions!
Is Trump's tariff thunderous but light?
Trump imposes tariffs on Brazil and seven other countries (Brazil's rate at 50%), but the market reacts lukewarmly!
Iron Eagle disassembles the plate:
Short-term disturbance: After the tariff news, ETH only pulled back 0.3%, quickly recovered by buying pressure, indicating that the main force believes in 'non-systemic risk'.
Deep logic: Brazil's tariffs target agricultural products, with weak association with the technology chain; and tariffs from 22 countries are implemented in batches, leaving room for negotiation before August 1.
Alert not lifted: If Trump expands to technology products (such as chips), it will severely impact the market, current probability <10%.
Conclusion: The weight of news aspect Interest rate cut (70%) > tariffs (30%), ETH's medium-term trend is upward!
Technical aspect: The battle at the 2800 mark is imminent, and the main force has revealed its key bottom card.
Bull-bear lifeline: 2780-2800 concentrated chip zone
Current price 2780.68: Commission ratio +0.19% indicates buying pressure is dominant, but heavy selling pressure at the round number of 2800 (orders show that there is main force pressure at 2800.00).
Volume signal: During the surge, a large transaction of 200K appeared at 2780.68, suspected to be institutional buying; MACD histogram turned red and expanded, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Core support and resistance
Key basis for position nature: 2750 bull defense line previous high turning support + psychological level 2724 strong support area 7/8 pullback low point 2800 bear stronghold historical dense trading area + maximum pain point for options 2850 breakthrough target daily channel upper line.
Turnaround signal monitoring
Breakthrough conditions: Volume breaks through 2800 and stabilizes for 30 minutes, targeting directly at 2850.
Breakout risk: If it falls below 2750, it will trigger programmatic selling, possibly testing 2724 (a drop of about 2%).
Conclusion: 2800 breakthrough probability 60%, pulling back to 2750 is healthy accumulation!
Future market projection and retail investor golden strategy
(Probability 60%): Strongly breaking 2800, starting a sprint wave.
Trigger conditions: Fed officials release dovish statements/tariffs have not spread.
Target: 2850 (short-term) → 3000 (mid-month).
Operation: Lightly try buying at current price of 2780, increase position after breaking 2800, stop loss at 2750.
(Probability 35%): Pullback and wash the plate, constructing an upward continuation.
Trigger conditions: Tariff concerns ferment in the short term/profit-taking sell pressure.
Bottom area: 2750-2724 (excellent buying zone).
Operation: Place buy orders in batches below 2750, stop loss at 2700.
Extreme scenario (probability 5%): Falling back below 2700
Necessary conditions: Global trade war outbreak + Fed hawkish pivot.
Iron Eagle warning: Closely monitor Trump's Twitter and US CPI data (released on 7/11).
>>> Iron Eagle's ultimate suggestion <<<
Main force thinking operation: During the rate cut cycle, buying on pullbacks is the strategy, don't be disturbed by tariff noise.
Position management: 50% position at current price, increase to 70% upon breaking 2800, reduce position if it falls below 2750.
Wealth code: If ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks 0.054 (weekly), ETH will start an independent market!
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