Crypto earthquake! Two major policies ignite ETH to a ten-thousand-point market, analysts say: Is $2800 just the starting point?
In the early morning of July 10, Beijing time, the cryptocurrency market welcomed a double nuclear bomb-level positive news — the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes released signals of interest rate cuts, and Brazil suddenly announced a 50% tariff on cryptocurrency transactions! Driven by both policy hedging and capital risk aversion, Ethereum (ETH) surged strongly in the hourly chart, with the price soaring from $2650 to $2778, a single-day increase of 2.12%, and the trading volume exceeding 777,000 contracts. What hidden wealth codes lie behind this explosive rise?
1. Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts: Liquidity easing ignites the crypto bull market
According to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, 'most officials believe that a rate cut later this year is appropriate.' Although the probability of a rate cut in July dropped sharply due to Trump’s tariff pressure, the market has already bet on the start of the September rate cut cycle. This expectation directly impacts the US dollar index (DXY), causing the dollar to drop from a high of 110 to around 105, as liquidity easing expectations drive funds from dollar assets into high-yield risk markets.
Technical validation:
BOLL indicator: ETH price breaks through the BOLL middle track ($2630.95) and approaches the upper track ($2689.77), indicating strong bullish momentum;
MACD indicator: DIF (24.35) crosses DEA (18.52), green bars reach new highs and then pull back to the zero axis, bullish momentum remains intact;
Key support levels: $2492.42 and $2459.0 form double insurance, with a drop probability of less than 15%.
2. Trump announces the tariff letter sent to Brazilian President Lula, informing Brazil of the new tax rate of 50%: Safe-haven funds boost ETH demand
The Trump administration's move to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian products triggered severe fluctuations in the Latin American market. The Brazilian real plummeted 3% against the dollar, and local crypto traders frantically bought ETH and other mainstream coins to hedge against the risk of fiat currency devaluation. Data shows that ETH trading volume on Brazil's largest exchange, XBIT, surged 40% in a single day, making Latin America the most vigorous incremental market in this round of increases.
Historical patterns repeat:
During the US-Mexico tariff war in February 2025, ETH once fell 27% in a single day, but later rebounded over 50% due to the 'digital gold' narrative;
This Brazilian policy may replicate a similar path, and after a short-term adjustment, it is expected to challenge the resistance level of $3000.
3. Three major signals of surge lock in a target price of $2900
Surge in online activity: Ethereum mainnet transaction volume and smart contract interaction volume exceed the peak of 2024, with DeFi projects like x.game bringing new funds into the market;
Technical double bottom structure: ETH formed a double bottom at $2430 and $2470, and after breaking the neck line at $2630, the theoretical increase could reach 15%;
Institutional layout traces: On-chain data shows that whale addresses like Grayscale and MicroStrategy have begun to increase their holdings of ETH, with an average cost of about $2500.
4. Risk warning and operational strategy
Short-term volatility: If the US dollar index rebounds due to tariff escalation, ETH may revisit the support level of $2600, and it is recommended to build positions in batches at this level;
Long-term holding: The Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle + global crypto tax reform, ETH is expected to challenge $3000 in 2025;
Leverage trading: XBIT exchange data shows that the profit and loss ratio for 3x leveraged long positions is 1:5, but a stop-loss at $2500 is required.
Policy hedging, technical breakthroughs, and capital risk aversion, these three engines are pushing ETH into a new era! As a crypto investor, it's crucial to remember: Bull markets don’t call tops, but it’s necessary to step on the resonance points of policy and technology accurately. Next stop, $3500!
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