With the wave of corporations hoarding coins, BTC's new high has arrived as expected.
As financial markets widely focus on the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy, Bitcoin broke through its previous high from May 22 during the late trading session on July 9, refreshing its historical high to nearly $112,000 per coin (with CMC data at $111,925.38), with an intraday increase of nearly 3%.
The Federal Reserve's June minutes sent signals of potential rate cuts.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting released that day also provided the market with complex yet suggestive information.
The minutes show that there are significant divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the outlook for monetary policy, which can be divided into three main camps:
Mainstream camp: Most participants assessed that it may be appropriate to lower the federal funds rate target range this year, but ruled out the possibility of an immediate rate cut in July. They generally believe that the committee is "fully capable of waiting for a clearer outlook on inflation and economic activity." The minutes pointed out that the upward pressure on inflation from tariffs may be temporary or moderate, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, and economic activity and the labor market may show some weakening.
Hawkish camp: A minority of participants believe that the federal funds rate target range should not be lowered this year, citing that "recent inflation data continues to exceed the committee's 2% target."
Dovish camp: A minority of participants (implied to include Federal Reserve governors Waller and Bowman by "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos) suggested that if data developments align with their expectations, they would be willing to consider lowering the policy interest rate target range at the next meeting.
Despite internal divisions, the signal that "most participants assessed that a rate cut may be appropriate this year" undoubtedly enhances market expectations for future liquidity easing, which is a positive macro catalyst for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Long-term holders of Bitcoin have reached a 15-year high in holdings.
Bitcoin's breakthrough this time is not without foundation. Recent on-chain data from ARK Invest and Glassnode shows that there is a strong "ballast" force in the Bitcoin market—long-term holders (LTHs).
ARK Invest's latest (monthly Bitcoin report) indicates that the total amount of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has now reached 74% of the total supply, a ratio that is a new high in the past 15 years. This strongly suggests the firm conviction and bullish expectations of experienced investors in the market, as they choose to continue hoarding Bitcoin rather than selling during price increases, providing strong support for the market.
Glassnode's data also corroborates this trend. Over the past five years, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has sharply declined twice, each time followed by a significant increase in Bitcoin prices. Notably, since July 2024, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has been steadily declining. This indicates that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin from trading platforms to private wallets for long-term holding, reducing market selling pressure. If history repeats itself, there is further room for Bitcoin's bull market to run.
Although ARK Invest's report also mentioned that the MVRV momentum indicator measuring market sentiment showed a decline in on-chain capital flows in the second quarter, which may indicate a cooling of short-term market enthusiasm, the steadfast stance of long-term holders provides a solid foundation for Bitcoin prices, making them more resilient in the face of short-term volatility.
Bitcoin's "bull flag" breakout aims for a higher target.
Several well-known analysts have also expressed optimism about Bitcoin's upside potential from a technical perspective.
According to TradingShot analysts, since hitting the bottom in November 2022, Bitcoin's price has been in a clear upward channel, which closely aligns with the Fibonacci channel that has tracked Bitcoin's price movements since 2013. Analysts believe that Bitcoin has converted the previous "bull flag" top into a support level, which is a "strong bullish signal," and the price continues to stay above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $106,750.
TradingShot further predicts that the technical breakout from this "bull flag" points to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension line, with a target price potentially reaching $168,500.
Additionally, well-known trader Zerohedge pointed out on the X platform that if Bitcoin can follow its fractal pattern with M2 money supply, then once the current consolidation period ends, Bitcoin's price will enter a parabolic rise. This potential link between macro liquidity and Bitcoin prices adds a more optimistic tone to the current market.
Glassnode compared historical cycle data and found that the current cycle has similarities to the bull markets of 2017 and 2021—during which Bitcoin prices began parabolic rises at similar points in time, lasting nearly a year. This suggests that if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin still has significant upside potential.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also pointed out that if Bitcoin follows the historical pattern of 2020, the price expansion of this cycle may only have a few months left, with a potential peak in October, about 550 days before the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024.
Bitcoin's latest refresh of its historical high is the result of multiple factors resonating, including macro benefits, institutional adoption, and corporations hoarding coins. The expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have injected ample liquidity into the market, while the steadfast positions of long-term holders have built a solid price floor. From the current market momentum, its upward momentum is far from over, and a stronger acceleration may be on the horizon in the second half of the year.
