The FOMC meeting minutes at 2 AM today are not the interest rate decision; the interest rate decision will be announced on July 31. In the past, such simple meetings have had a slight impact on the market, but given that Trump has been urging the FED to cut rates every day, the meeting minutes today still attract considerable attention. Although there are no unexpected surprises, there is a clear bias towards dovish members. Therefore, as long as the economic data in July, especially tonight's unemployment numbers, meet expectations or show an increase, the probability of a rate cut starting in September will be very high, and Bitcoin may reach a new high of $112,000.
Looking at the trend of the US dollar, it is evident that the market anticipates the approaching interest rate cut cycle, with the US dollar index hovering between 97 and 98, which is the lowest point in three years. Historically, when the US dollar weakens, risk assets like US stocks, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies tend to be favored, resulting in optimistic price trends. If we refer to the 200-day moving average of the US dollar index, we find that except for 2024 (with favorable ETF and Trump news), every time the US dollar index falls below the average line, the price of Bitcoin begins to rise. The most recent breach was in March 2025, after which Bitcoin reached a new high.
However, we also see that every time the gap between the price of Bitcoin and the US dollar index widens, it marks the beginning of a market reversal. On average, after 4 to 6 months, the gap between the two will start to narrow again. Therefore, by 2026, Bitcoin may face a significant correction. However, as market participation and depth increase, the magnitude of this correction is gradually decreasing. It is still expected that rate cuts will stimulate the market to rise in the second half of the year, but attention should still be paid to the risk of a correction in 2026.
"MICA Daily｜FOMC Dovish, US Dollar Depreciation, Bitcoin Reaches New High of $112,000" was first published on (Block Guest).
