Let's talk about this phase of the market nearing its end

Three pictures tell you why the bull market has not ended???

The first picture shows Bitcoin reaching its peak near $20,000 in 2017, which halved to around $10,000 in just a month.

The second picture shows Bitcoin reaching its peak near $69,000 in 2021, which dropped to around $40,000 in just a month.

From these two instances of major sell-offs, it can be seen that after Bitcoin peaks, the price drops at least 40% within a month.

The third picture represents our current market trend. After Bitcoin surged to $112,000 and then retreated to the $90,000 - $110,000 range for consolidation, it is a very healthy trend. If it really were at a peak, the major players would not hold a high position for such a long time; they would have sold off and crashed the price down to the $60,000 - $70,000 range long ago.

If the bull market has already ended, then Bitcoin has been in a high-level consolidation state for more than half a year. Is it really just “doing charity”? High-level consolidation for such a long time to allow retail investors to sell???

The longer the high-level consolidation lasts, the higher the market cost becomes. So, if we assume the bull market has ended, would the major players be foolish enough to engage in such a thankless scenario?

Some viewpoints suggest that high-level consolidation is aimed at distributing chips. First, the current market sentiment is low, and there are not many retail investors buying. Secondly, even if market sentiment were normal, the high-level consolidation trend would not easily stimulate public buying enthusiasm. Instead, as time passes, the distributed chips would always far exceed the market's absorption capacity, and to maintain the price, the major players would have to consume a large amount of chips.

Typically, chip distribution occurs during the consolidation phase after a significant rise or fall because the market turnover effect is strongest at that time. We do not know the exact strength of the major players, but there is one historical case worth warning about—there was once a major player in a meme coin who, after maintaining a high-level consolidation, ultimately could not hold on, and the player went bankrupt. In the absence of black swan events, such consolidation does not mean that the market has peaked.

As for the impact of black swan events, typically in these cases, major players are often more adaptable than retail investors. The probability of a black swan event occurring is very low, around 0.1%. Therefore, from this perspective, the current consolidation trend indicates that Bitcoin has not yet reached its peak, and the bull market has not ended.