In this cycle, many people are discussing the topic of altcoin season. Some say it will return, while others say it won't. Here’s my conclusion: the explosion of altcoin season will come again for several reasons:
1️⃣ Anti-humanity: The advantage of retail investors is their ability to summarize, but their disadvantage is also their ability to summarize. In the major bull market of 2017, both Bitcoin and altcoins soared, followed by the arrival of the bear market in 2018, where altcoins collectively went to zero. Although Bitcoin dropped significantly, it was clearly much milder compared to altcoins. Thus, everyone learned a lesson and heavily bought BTC during the subsequent bear market. Then came the bull market of 2021, where altcoins exploded. As long as one held on until the end, they saw several times or even dozens of times their gains. The increase in Bitcoin was negligible compared to altcoins, and many Bitcoin holders missed out on this great bull market. After this round of market activity, everyone began summarizing again, planning to buy altcoins in advance for the next cycle and to hold with diamond hands. Now we are in this cycle, with a Bitcoin bull market and a bear market for altcoins, which has continued until now, resulting in a phenomenon of coexistence of bull and bear markets. By the next cycle, retail investors will again summarize, and they will hoard a large amount of BTC. Once the altcoin market becomes vacant, it will be easy to drive a boom;
2️⃣ Project Manipulation: Always remember one thing: capitalists do not do charity. The money invested will inevitably be returned with interest. After the waves of 2024 and 2025, altcoins collectively went to zero, and retail investors have mostly exited. Now, the chips in the altcoin projects on the market have mostly been reclaimed by the project parties. The project parties now hold enough cheap chips, making future manipulation and control very easy. With just a few tens of thousands of dollars, they can create a market value of tens of millions. Once they start a collective pump, market enthusiasm will be ignited immediately, and everyone will mindlessly chase the rises; chasing rises and panic selling is a common trait among retail investors.
3️⃣ True Prosperity: Those who have experienced bull and bear cycles know that although BTC has increased several times in this wave of 2024, the market has never really been ignited. A bull market is often accompanied by widespread frenzy, discussions, and even pigs can make money. The significant rise of one coin does not lead to the prosperity of the entire market. During Bitcoin's standout phase, there has been a chorus of complaints from retail investors throughout the market. The market has never been ignited; without ignition, new investors will not enter the market, and without new retail investors, a violent bull market cannot occur. Therefore, this wave is essentially a game of existing stock, with very little increment. When new investors enter en masse, that will be the arrival of altcoin season. Currently, the user base of crypto is still a very small part globally.
4️⃣ Finally, to summarize, a violent bull market for altcoin season will come again, and it will be very crazy. In other words, the altcoin bull market will continue to exist as long as the crypto industry is still around. If the recent altcoin bull does not come in the second half of the year, it will definitely come in the next cycle.
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