Introduction

Since the inception of Bitcoin (BTC), the cryptocurrency market has experienced explosive growth. As of March 2025, there are over 20,000 types of cryptocurrencies globally, the vast majority being 'altcoins' (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin). However, behind the prosperity lies high risk, as many altcoins quickly disappear after their creation, losing all market value and causing significant losses for investors. This article aims to explore the extinction rates of altcoins, analyze their causes, and assess the likelihood of cryptocurrencies held by investors going to zero. Through data analysis and trend forecasting, this article seeks to provide investors with a basis for rational judgment.

Current status and data on altcoin extinction rates

The extinction rate of altcoins refers to the proportion of altcoins that lose trading activity, market value, or are abandoned by the community within a specific time frame. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced in the cryptocurrency market due to its low barriers to entry and high speculation.

Historical data

According to statistics from platforms like Coinopsy and Dead Coins, by 2023, over 5,000 cryptocurrencies have been categorized as 'dead' or 'abandoned.' These projects include failed ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings), tokens whose development teams have disappeared, or those lacking maintenance.

According to CoinMarketCap, during the ICO boom from 2017-2018, about 80% of projects disappeared within 18 months. For example, a 2018 study by Statis Group found that over 70% of ICO projects eventually lost all their market value (Statis Group, 2018). The DeFi and NFT boom in 2021 led to a new wave of altcoins, but many projects (like meme coins) collapsed rapidly once the hype faded. For instance, the Squid Game token dropped 99.99% from its peak in 2021 due to a 'rug pull' scam.

Quantifying extinction rates

If we define 'complete lack of trading volume' or 'price dropping close to zero (~$0.0001)' as standards, the historical extinction rate is about 40%-60%. An analysis in 2023 showed that among 10,000 cryptocurrencies tracked by CoinGecko, about 50% had trading volumes close to zero in the past year (CoinGecko, 2023). By 2025, as the market matures, the extinction rate may slightly decrease but still remain between 30%-50%, as new projects continuously emerge, intensifying competition and eliminating weak ones.

Extinction characteristics

Low market cap projects: Altcoins with a market cap below $1 million have the highest extinction rates, accounting for about 80% of dead projects. Lack of practicality: Projects with no real applications or ecological support (like purely speculative tokens) are the most likely to go to zero.

Short lifespan: Most extinct coins do not last longer than 2 years.

In summary: The extinction rate of altcoins is high, with historical data indicating that 40%-60% of projects ultimately fail. The trend in 2025 may show slight improvement, but the risks remain significant. The causes of altcoin extinction

The extinction of altcoins is not accidental but rather the result of multiple factors, including technology, market dynamics, and regulation. Understanding these reasons can help assess the zeroing out risk of the cryptocurrencies in hand.

Technical defects

Many altcoins lack a reliable technological foundation. For example, they may have copied the code of Bitcoin or Ethereum (ETH) without optimization, leading to poor security or lack of scalability.

Solana (SOL) faced a trust crisis due to network outages (multiple times in 2021-2022); if issues persist, it may threaten its long-term survival.

Market competition

The space left for altcoins is limited as the crypto market is a 'winner-takes-all' ecosystem, with Bitcoin and Ethereum dominating (approximately 60% market cap share as of March 2025).

New projects must compete with mature public chains (like Solana, Avalanche); if they cannot establish a user base, they will be quickly eliminated. For example, although EOS raised $4 billion in its 2018 ICO, due to ecosystem shrinkage, its market value fell out of the top ten by 2023.

Speculation and bubbles

Altcoins often rely on hype for driving value, such as Dogecoin (DOGE) surging due to tweets from Elon Musk, but lack fundamental support, making them prone to crashing. In the 2021 meme coin craze, 90% of projects went to zero within a few months, typically like SHIB's imitators.

Regulatory and legal risks

Tightening regulations in various countries (such as China's 2021 ban, the SEC's lawsuit against XRP in the US) have led to projects being unable to operate. For instance, Ripple (XRP) once saw its market cap cut in half due to lawsuits.

Illegal ICOs or Ponzi schemes (like PlusToken) being shut down can lead to immediate zeroing out.

Team and community dysfunction

It is common for development teams to run away or abandon maintenance. Records from Dead Coins show that about 30% of dead projects disappeared due to 'lack of management.' In summary: Technical defects, fierce competition, speculative bubbles, regulatory pressure, and team dysfunction collectively elevate the extinction rate of altcoins, and investors should be wary of these risk points.

Will the cryptocurrency in your hands go to zero?

Whether the cryptocurrency in investors' hands goes to zero depends on the specific type of coin held, the market environment, and personal strategy. Here are assessment methods and possibility analyses.

Probability of mainstream coins going to zero

Bitcoin (BTC): As the cornerstone of the market, the likelihood of Bitcoin going to zero is extremely low (~1%), unless there is a global internet collapse or quantum computing breaks its encryption algorithm. Ethereum (ETH): With a strong ecosystem, the probability of zeroing out is also low (~5%), but if Layer 2 fails or competitors (like Solana) completely replace it, its value could significantly decrease.

Other blue-chip coins (like BNB, SOL): The probability of zeroing out is about 5%-15%, depending on platform stability and regulatory impacts. The risk of zeroing out for small to mid-cap altcoins

Emerging public chains (like Sei, Render): If technological implementation fails or the ecosystem is not established, the probability of zeroing out could reach 50%-70%.

Meme coins (like SHIB, FLOKI): With no fundamental support, the probability of zeroing out exceeds 80%, especially during bear markets or when hype wanes.

CO or niche projects: Without community support or a broken funding chain, the probability of zeroing out can reach 90%.

Key factors influencing zeroing out

Market cycles: In a bull market, the risk of zeroing out decreases as capital inflows mask problems; in a bear market, weak projects are exposed, leading to a surge in extinction rates.

Holding period: Short-term speculators are more susceptible to zeroing out, while long-term holders (like BTC, ETH) face lower risks.

Project fundamentals: Coins with active development, practical uses, and community support (like Chainlink LINK) are more likely to survive.

Impact of personal strategies

Diversified investment: Holding multiple cryptocurrencies can reduce overall zeroing out risk.

Research and Monitoring: Regularly assessing project progress (such as GitHub activity, white paper feasibility) can help avoid pitfalls.

Stop-loss mechanism: Setting exit strategies can reduce losses.

Case Analysis:

If you hold BTC and ETH, the probability of zeroing out is extremely low, but short-term volatility is inevitable. If you hold meme coins (like the emerging 'CyberDog' in 2025), the risk of zeroing out is very high, potentially collapsing within months due to waning hype. In summary: mainstream coins have a low probability of zeroing out (~15%), while small to mid-cap altcoins carry high risks (50%-90%). The fate of your cryptocurrency depends on its fundamentals and the market environment.

Can exchanges still be used if Bitcoin goes to zero?

The zeroing out of Bitcoin does not affect the use of exchanges. Bitcoin zeroing out refers to the price of Bitcoin dropping to zero, but this does not affect the existence of Bitcoin itself or the normal operation of exchanges. Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that does not rely on any single entity or institution; thus, Bitcoin itself will not 'go to zero' or disappear.

Exchanges are platforms that provide Bitcoin trading services. The circulation of Bitcoin relies on the entire decentralized network, maintained by all nodes. Therefore, even if an exchange closes or the price of Bitcoin goes to zero, Bitcoin still exists within the Bitcoin network and can be accessed through other exchanges, peer-to-peer trading, or transferred to personal hardware wallets.

Conduct transactions and transfers.

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that does not rely on any single entity or institution. Therefore, Bitcoin itself will not disappear due to the closure of an exchange. The circulation of Bitcoin relies on the entire decentralized network, maintained by all nodes. If an exchange closes, users' Bitcoin on that trading platform may be affected, such as difficulties in withdrawal or loss of funds. Users can try to contact the exchange for relevant information or understand the liquidation process to handle asset issues.

Topic.

What will happen if Bitcoin goes to zero? The zeroing out of Bitcoin will have far-reaching impacts in multiple areas. When Bitcoin loses its value or utility, the rewards for mining will be wiped out, and nearly a million miners will lose their funds. They will be forced to seek alternative sources of income. Mining operations will have to close, leading to thousands of job losses.

The zeroing out of Bitcoin would lead to an instantaneous evaporation of wealth for holders, with many investors potentially losing everything. This would be particularly severe for those who recently bought at high prices. As the leader of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin's zeroing out would trigger a collapse of the entire cryptocurrency market. The prices of other virtual currencies may also plummet, resulting in massive wealth destruction.

The zeroing out of Bitcoin will have a chain reaction on the global economy. Financial institutions and companies may face massive losses, especially those holding significant amounts of Bitcoin, which could risk bankruptcy. Moreover, global financial markets might experience volatility due to Bitcoin's zeroing out, potentially triggering a larger financial crisis.

If Bitcoin were to go to zero due to a technical flaw or large-scale hacking, regulators might strengthen oversight of Bitcoin and related technologies, potentially leading to a complete ban on Bitcoin trading and mining activities. The collapse of Bitcoin would have widespread psychological and emotional impacts. Investors may lose confidence in other assets, leading to panic selling in the market and further exacerbating market turmoil.

Conclusion

Historically, the extinction rate of altcoins is between 40% and 60%, and it may slightly decrease to 30% to 50% by 2025, but it remains a high-risk area. Causes for extinction include technical defects, market competition, speculative bubbles, regulatory pressure, and team dysfunction. Whether the cryptocurrency in investors' hands goes to zero depends on the type of coin and personal strategy: mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum have strong survival prospects, while small to mid-cap projects, especially meme coins, have a very high risk of zeroing out.

Suggestions: Investors should prioritize cryptocurrencies with fundamental support, diversify their investments, and avoid blindly chasing trends. At the same time, closely monitor market cycles and regulatory dynamics to reduce the risk of zeroing out. In the future, as the crypto market matures, the extinction rate of altcoins may further decline, but speculative risks will persist in the long term.

Disclaimer: This article is an analytical discussion and does not constitute investment advice. #美国加征关税 $BTC