I recently watched Liangxi's videos, and honestly, I think he looks quite adorable when he is acting crazy. He has a bit of a charmingly wicked vibe.
If I had to describe him in one sentence, I would say he is the top figure in the crypto world, a genius contract trader, Liangxi, with a charming and wild smile.
Some say he made a billion shorting during the bull market, others say he made 30 million, and some say he made 10 million.
How much is truly unknown. Most people think that Liangxi's ability to make money is simply luck.
If I hadn't read Taleb's book, I would think so too, but now I don't believe it's that simple luck.
Taleb will heavily short cheap options in the US stock market; he may lose 99 times out of 100. But because these options are very cheap.
He loses very little money. But if the market experiences a black swan event that causes a crash, he can make a fortune.
Every few years, there are black swan events. In the past decade, there have been quite a few black swan events. Possibly one occurs every three years.
For example, the surge in Brazilian iron ore prices triggers a spike in iron ore prices. The Middle Eastern oil fields being attacked by drones causing a reduction in production leads to soaring oil prices, and so on with masks over the past three years.
Also, because of the existence of these black swan events, anyone trading leveraged contracts must face them eventually.
So no matter how much you earn, as long as your position is in contracts, encountering such an event once will basically wipe you out.
For instance, if you drive for 100 years, you will definitely face a catastrophic accident. If you fly for 1,000 years, you will definitely encounter a plane crash.
The occurrence of these events is 100% guaranteed.
As long as you communicate with others and have social connections, if you go out frequently enough, you will definitely encounter events where people get struck by lightning or stabbed.
Long-term capital is composed of a trading team with Nobel laureates, which has always been very profitable, with astonishing returns, but then faced a black swan event with the Russian bond default, leading to bankruptcy. No matter how much you earn, facing these black swan events makes it nearly impossible to recover.
In the crypto world, most efforts are trivial, such as frequently trading or watching the market, which is useless. They earn money from physical work, and these are all stagnant activities. Any activity that does not grow is not worth persisting in for the long term. It will not truly improve our lives or change our social class.
Rumor has it that Liangxi went bankrupt, ran out of money, and got liquidated. Some say he was greedy, others say he was insane. I believe someone like him is definitely going to make money.
But it's not about making money from contracts; it's about making money as an internet celebrity in the crypto world. He is a top figure, and as long as he can monetize his traffic, his real value lies in that traffic.
Li Xiaolai has also said that to truly make big money in the crypto world, one must become an internet celebrity; that is the prerequisite.
Sun Yuchen, CZ, and Li Xiaolai are all internet celebrities. Sun Yuchen markets every topic to generate traffic; he knows it very well and plays it skillfully.
Making money trading coins is minimal; making money from contracts is insignificant for them. But they have traffic, which opens up too many opportunities to make money.
They utilize traffic to monetize in the crypto world, making more money than selling products or courses. The crypto world is direct money.
Even someone like me, who has very few followers, has sponsors offering me money to help them promote entrepreneurial ads. This shows just how profitable generating traffic can be.
If you really want to make money in contracts today, you must be lazy about contracts for your entire life.
So I advise you not to frequently trade and do physical labor, as it is destined to be ineffective.
I can provide you with a real strategy that could make money in contracts. Please note that this is merely one strategy that aligns with Taleb's risk model.
When a bull market is about to begin, you constantly use small amounts of capital to go long. Then you need to keep rolling over your position; if you get liquidated, just reopen it.
When does a bull market start? You need to learn various indicators, such as the soaring bitcoin index from global browser searches. There are many such indicators, and as long as you are in the circle and learn, you will know them. It's about continuously going long and rolling over; when everyone else rushes into the market, that's when you tell people you're trading coins, and then those who have never traded coins start asking you about buying coins, having heard it's very profitable, then you decisively close your position.
At this point, you start to short with small positions, like 500 USDT. Keep shorting; if you get liquidated, continue shorting; the higher it goes, the more you short.
As long as your chips are sufficient, you will definitely encounter the day when the market crashes. On that day, the profits you make will recover all your previous losses.
The earnings can be much more than that.
You can observe how Liangxi made a fortune shorting in a bull market; he is truly a genius at creating topics and generating traffic. While others are going long in the bull market, he successfully shorted it, becoming famous overnight.
This process must not be done with large capital; for example, if you have 1 million and then borrow another million to stake 2 million, this method is destined to fail. If you only have 100,000, and short 3,000 each time, you can do it many times, and you will definitely encounter the day the bull market crashes.
As long as you keep playing, in the crypto world, a drop of 50% in one day is basically normal. Capturing such opportunities means making big money in contracts.
This is the truth about Liangxi making a fortune while shorting in a bull market; he just happened to bet on that day. The bull market crashed.
This is an effective strategy for making money by utilizing negative black swan events in the market.
And during a bear market, dollar-cost averaging. In the early stages of a bull market, going long is a strategy to effectively make money by utilizing the positive black swan events in the market.
It's not just simple luck as they say.
