The wolf is coming, scream three times, and the market is scared to death; big players sell off quickly, be careful of getting hit tonight!
Tonight's market (Shen Ce's view):
Two knives hanging above, making people nervous!
The tariff knife: The Americans are shouting about imposing heavy tariffs (50%!) on copper and threatening several countries. Although the 'crypto tariff' (TACO) specifically targeting our crypto circle has been postponed to August 1, this last-minute withdrawal indicates either that interests have not been negotiated, or they are waiting for the Federal Reserve to make a move. My view at Shen Ce: The market is currently like a startled bird! Think back to February, just because of tariff rumors, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped directly from 110,000 to 75,000! If there’s any new movement on tariffs tonight, be careful of history repeating itself, a sharp drop is inevitable!
Interest rate cut speculation + giant whales making moves: The knowledgeable ones openly criticize Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as 'the worst in history,' forcing him to cut interest rates by the end of July, or else there will be 'disastrous consequences.' The market thinks there’s a high chance of an interest rate cut in September and October, but July is likely to remain still, which is a small negative in the short term. More critically! A sleeping 'giant whale'/large institution suddenly woke up today! First, they transferred 9,000 Bitcoins (worth nearly 1 billion dollars!), and within 24 hours, they cumulatively sold 17,000 Bitcoins (almost 1.9 billion dollars!). My experience at Shen Ce: Such a level of 'big players moving houses' is often a precursor to a market shift! They sneak away, and retail investors must remain highly vigilant, be careful they suddenly dump!
Technical front: Prices are squeezed at the tip of a triangle, and a battle between long and short is imminent!
Currently, Bitcoin is stuck in a narrow range between 108,000 and 109,000, unable to go up or down, feeling suffocating!
The pressure above is enormous: 109,300 - 109,700 is the stronghold of shorts tonight; if it doesn’t break through, don’t think about touching the previous high of 110,400.
The life-and-death line below: 107,300 - 106,300 is the critical point; if this bottom breaks, it will head straight for 105,000 or even 102,500!
What I, Shen Ce, am focusing on: The 4-hour chart is forming a 'triangle convergence' - highs are getting lower (109,700 -> 109,300), and lows are getting higher (106,300 -> 107,300), with prices squeezed into a smaller and smaller space (recent volatility is pitifully low). This formation must explode at the end! Considering the previously mentioned giant whales running + the tariff hanging case, I feel that the possibility of a downward explosion (breaking down) is greater! Just like a spring compressed to the limit, it will either bounce or break; the current environment indicates that the risk of breaking is higher.
Operation strategy: Better to starve than to eat poorly!
Cautious faction:
If it bounces up to around 109,300 - 109,700 and fails to go higher, you can try a small short position, but remember to place the stop loss above 110,400.
If it really drops to the range of 106,300 - 107,300 and shows obvious signs of stopping the decline (like a long lower shadow on the candlestick, or a sudden shrinkage in trading volume), you can take a small position to bet on a rebound, but you must! Must! strictly set the stop loss below 106,000! Remember the words of Shen Ce: If it breaks 106,000, don’t hesitate, cut the position! The next level is 102,500!
Aggressive faction:
Want to bet on tariff black swans or giant whales dumping? You can place a breakout short order below 107,000, targeting 105,000-102,500 (similarly, you must have a stop loss above 108,000, don’t go in naked!).
Spot traders:
Control your hands! Don’t buy randomly! The daily chart looks a bit 'topping divergence,' market volatility is at a low point, and the cost-effectiveness is too poor! Really want to buy? Wait! Either wait for it to drop to around 105,000-106,000 and consider buying in batches; or wait until it can strongly break through 110,400, confirming a trend reversal, then it won’t be too late to chase.
Shen Ce's summary (from the heart):
Tonight's script probability: First, a small rebound to touch around 109,500. If there’s no sudden positive stimulus, it’s very likely to turn down! The selling pressure from giant whales + the panic from tariffs can easily trigger a sharp drop, breaking through 107,000! The most critical point is, if even 106,300 can't be held? Then the alarm will sound, be careful of a waterfall!
The core logic boils down to two points:
News front: Bad news (tariffs hanging, interest rate cut speculation, giant whales running away) is pressing down, and good news is temporarily not visible.
Technical front: Prices are compressed to the extreme, and a turning point is imminent; the giant whales have already voted with their feet.
Shen Ce's advice: In this situation, it’s better to earn a little less than to get deeply trapped! As long as the green mountains remain, one need not worry about firewood.
Tonight the wind is high and the waves are rough, be careful to steer your ship for a thousand years! Remember, on July 14, there’s still the 'crypto regulation week' event waiting in the US! Save your bullets, the real 'big meat' might be just around the corner!
Follow the pinned post on the homepage for precise strikes; the wave is king! Shen Ce team’s private layout helps you use low-multiplication contracts to steadily grasp the market launch point, igniting the engine for asset doubling!#币安HODLer空投LA #SECETF审批
