The hundred times contract seems very risky, but it is the category where I have made the highest profits and win rates. I was puzzled at first, but later understood the reason, mainly because I stumbled upon it by following certain rules, including:
Four Rules
1. Total Position Confirmation: For example, the funds used for playing contracts in an account, I will always keep it at 300U, with a maximum loss of 300U. If I make a profit, I can earn tens of thousands of U when a major trend occurs.
2. Initial Position Confirmation: The initial position is always a very small amount. The principle is what stock market wizard Livermore said, if you're right, it's best to make money right from the start, so the initial testing amount is extremely small. With 300U in full position, an initial position of about 10U is often sufficient.
3. Position Increase Confirmation: Position increases must be made using profits. Only when profits appear and the trend shows are you to consider increasing the position.
4. Stop Loss Position: Adjust the stop loss position in a timely manner to ensure that the principal is not lost.
These four rules have made me strictly abide by trading rules, so the logic behind them can also be applied to ordinary low-leverage contracts; the reasoning is the same. Of course, before starting, a risk warning should still be made:
Beginners should not trade contracts, especially those who think there is some contract skill or a contract master who can predict prices, just listen to him, and you can make a fortune.
If it involves money, don’t touch it—after all, I don’t have the skill to guide you to instant wealth. Moreover, contracts test human nature very much; unless you can stick to using an extremely small amount of money, like 100U, 300U, etc., this aligns with 'small bets for big gains' rather than 'big bets for small gains'. I’m talking about methods, hoping to give contract players some references, that’s all.
Main Techniques:
1. Fund Transfer
Transfer USDT to the exchange, with a total limit of 300U. What is 300U? Personally, I mean, for example, I have a large position of 100,000U in spot trading, with a small position starting at 5,000U. I play with 300U at a hundred times leverage. You can see this ratio yourself. Generally speaking, you can also set a principle of 1% of total funds, but not exceeding 300U per trade. By the way, I actually do not recommend a hundred times contracts, as the risk is too high and the cost-performance ratio is low. Either it’s below 5X with large positions and dead leverage, or it’s 50-100X with extremely small positions for small gains—preferably only the latter, as contracts inevitably risk liquidation. Low leverage also applies, and with a hundred times, it’s either a liquidation of 300U or a huge profit. Overall, the risk-reward ratio is enormous.
2. Initial Position Techniques
Assuming now BTC is 16500U and has been fluctuating for a long time, I still look bearish and expect a major trend. It is recommended to open with 10U at 100X.
Once opened, don’t worry about the drop initially, unless it’s a liquidation; just sit back and watch, stay calm—it's as if you chose a direction before you opened, and you should ideally have over 70% confidence in the short term and expect a major trend to appear.
Major trends generally appear after the K-line flattens, as shown in the figure below:
Market Trends After 312
As shown in the above figure, after 312, in the market trends, every time there is a fluctuation, after the K-line becomes smoother, there will eventually be a large trend upwards or downwards. Finding opportunities to join at this time will be more helpful. As for how to find opportunities, you can refer to some tutorials, observing the appearance of specific K-line patterns, such as the 2B structure, etc. Often, when opening a position, if you feel that the current position isn't ideal for various reasons, you can reduce your initial position, such as starting with 1U. Conversely, if you are particularly confident in a certain position, you can slightly increase it.
However, you need to convert it; for 300U, if you open with 10U at 100X, the total position is 1000U, whereas your principal is 300U, which is over three times and already carries considerable risk. I do not recommend this! Because our key to the initial position is to survive in fluctuations, don’t be greedy!
3. Position Increasing Techniques
For example, if the market indeed breaks below 16000 and major negative news appears, and you observe through trading volume, MACD, etc., and feel there is a great chance of a large drop, then you need to consider increasing your position, and it must be done using profits. This is commonly known as rolling positions, which is essentially a key to small funds making big gains. However, at the same time, rolling positions are
A technical task where the most people get liquidated is right here. Next, let’s talk about the method: at this point, the market is declining, and my position has already made a profit. 300U has turned into 400U (for example, I didn’t calculate the exact amount). Now, before adding to my position, I observe that my profit is already 100U. Therefore, after increasing the position, it is advisable to set a stop loss, which means a loss of 100U, leaving me with a final position of 300U of principal.
Because at this point, we have already made a profit, and the direction is likely correct, there is no reason to risk the principal anymore. At this time, you need to notice that your stop loss of 100U actually means that your original position was a principal of 300U, and now it is a profit of 100U. If you increase the position, you may be stopped out at any time.
Because at this time, you can actually take it step by step. The first step is to set a stop loss of 100U and not rush to add; wait until profits increase before adding a little, adding bit by bit, and it’s best if you can hold through fluctuations.
The secret here is not to be greedy; if you are not sure, don’t even add. The hundred times contract is really fierce when making profits and equally so when losing. There is also a particularly important timing issue for increasing positions; it is best to add when there is a small rebound during a decline or add during a small pullback in an uptrend—here, the 2B structure is particularly useful and worth studying.
It is best to only increase the position two or three times, and then just watch the market run— the more you add, the more dangerous it becomes when there is a pullback.
4. Additional Supplements
High leverage in short-term trading is the correct way to play contracts; it is high risk but offers higher returns—note that I must emphasize again, I am not suggesting that you play with high leverage, especially beginners, don’t even touch it, because you won’t understand. I’m just sharing my thoughts and methods.
1. Form Your Own System
In the trading system, there is no holy grail.
We can see that short-term experts like Lam Williams and CIS have very good long-term practical results. The former's book has sold a lot, but I haven’t seen a second Williams because everyone’s mindset and system change slightly, resulting in vastly different trading outcomes. Therefore, to wear the crown, one must bear its weight. Form your own trading system, enjoy its benefits, accept its shortcomings, continuously summarize market rules, and constantly adjust to succeed.
2. Understand the Risk-Reward Ratio
In the trading system, the risk-reward ratio is the most important content, the real profit formula: profit - loss - fees > 0. There are three basic modes in trading, the first two are:
The first is high risk-reward ratio + low win rate + low frequency. Trend following, medium to long-term. For example, during the bull market of 2021, a fat guy could achieve a small target with 100,000 in Bitcoin, which is also a trend trader.
The second is low risk-reward ratio + high win rate + high frequency. The short-term expert mode often has a risk-reward ratio of 1:1, which is very poor; only some legendary figures might achieve this. I feel I am not capable. There is also a type of person in this field who seems to be high-frequency quant traders taking profits from exchange fees, relatively high-end, and generally wouldn’t teach others. Exchanges also tend to ban accounts once they discover such practices, so ordinary users don’t need to understand this.
The third is terrifying risk-reward ratio + medium win rate + extremely low frequency. The thousands of times I talk about can be classified as my own category, let’s call it the third type, which is unique to the crypto world.
For a 300U position, the maximum loss I can accept is 300U. According to my position opening method above, I can open many positions, but as long as I hit any of them, my risk-reward ratio will be terrifying. For example, the 46U position continued to rise to 25000U, and if the website doesn’t mess up, it could have reached 50000U later, which is nearly 1000 times. With this kind of risk-reward ratio, plus only opening positions at key points, a win rate below 10% is still okay—do you think a win rate below 10% is easy? You can't even have a win rate of only 10% with your eyes closed.
Big data indicates that the win rate of retail investors is about 33%.
From a strategic and tactical comprehensive perspective, systems with high win rates and low risk-reward ratios, low win rates and high risk-reward ratios, as well as my system can all succeed. Therefore, there is no need to dogmatically believe that only low win rates and high risk-reward ratios are viable, and the risk-reward ratio must exceed 3:1. A win rate of 10% or 90% can both potentially create a successful trading system.
Since both high win rates and low win rates can succeed, there is no need to get tangled in whether to trade long or short; you can even mix both. The important thing is to find a trading method that suits you when the strategic tactics related to trading are well matched. #美国加征关税 $BTC
