Trump's move in this game is indeed ruthless. Allies following the United States have ultimately become scapegoats — Japan and South Korea faced a 25% tariff increase first, while other Asian countries are facing a 40% tax rate. The final tariff plans for China, the EU, and India are also already on the horizon.
The backlash of this wave of tariffs on the U.S. economy is evident: inflation cannot be contained, and tax increases will only cause import prices to soar, further driving up prices; the sudden increase in corporate costs will inevitably squeeze profits, and the valuation system of U.S. stocks will face reevaluation, with the pressure for a correction quietly accumulating. The crypto space, which is highly correlated with U.S. stocks, seems to have sensed the chill in advance, with next year's major bear market almost locked in — this perfectly aligns with the cyclical rhythm of the crypto space every four years: the bear market lows of 2014, 2018, and 2022 have become historical coordinates, with the next point aiming directly at the end of 2026.
The market's response to policy has always been lagging. Signs of inflation appeared in 2021, but the real explosions didn’t occur until 2022; the tariffs will be imposed starting in August, and it may take until the end of the year for prices to fully transmit to the end market. The chain reaction of layoffs and declining revenues in companies is expected to gradually unfold by early next year.
In this cyclical scenario, the biggest opportunity in the crypto space this year has emerged: setting up short positions at high levels by the end of the year, holding onto them until the end of next year's bear market, and then turning around for a big bet on the bottom — by then, the market may be filled with 'gold.' When the Federal Reserve restarts the money printing machine after six years, a new bull market will be set in motion.
Looking back at the last cycle, since bottoming out in 2022, some have already gained 40 times returns through compound rolling. In the next cycle, the cruelty and opportunities of the market will continue to coexist. For me, it is unnecessary to be attached to specific numbers; what is more important is to keep pace with the cyclical rhythm: maintaining rationality in panic, staying awake during frenzy, and making each operation align with the market pulse. After all, in the cyclical reincarnation of the crypto space, surviving and stepping correctly is itself the best goal.
