Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin’s monthly outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9 — a level last seen during the 2022 market bottom.
Short-side pressure has failed to push BTC below $100K, suggesting structural accumulation.
Over 19,400 BTC moved into institutional wallets this week, pointing to long-term positioning.
Bitcoin may have already found its structural bottom at $100,000, according to on-chain data, as traders and institutional investors signal renewed confidence amid persistent short-side pressure.
After breaking above the $100,000 level on May 8, Bitcoin has consistently closed above the key psychological threshold, with only a brief dip to $98,300 on June 22. Currently trading around $108,500, BTC appears to be stabilizing in a new range between $100,000 and $110,000 — potentially laying the groundwork for a bullish breakout in the second half of 2025.
Outflow-to-Inflow Ratio Hits 2022 Levels
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows the monthly exchange outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9, the lowest level since December 2022, which historically marked the macro bottom of the previous bear market.
This ratio acts as a sentiment indicator:
Below 1.0: Suggests accumulation, as more BTC is moved off exchanges.
Above 1.05: Historically associated with local tops and increased selling pressure.
The current low reading reflects long-term confidence among investors and reduced intent to sell. It also mirrors the late 2022 setup, when Bitcoin reversed from its $15,500 lows and began a multi-month rally.
Institutional Accumulation Ramps Up
Supporting the bullish case, 19,400 BTC (worth over $2.1 billion) were moved into institutional-grade wallets on Tuesday, according to analyst Maartunn. These coins had remained dormant for 3 to 7 years, suggesting strategic repositioning rather than speculative trading.
Such large-scale movements are often linked to long-term capital allocation, particularly when paired with steady price support and declining exchange inflows. Analysts note this behavior as a bullish divergence, especially as market volatility remains contained.
CVD Data Shows Sell Pressure Absorbed
Despite aggressive short activity on Binance derivatives over the past 45 days, Bitcoin has resisted downward pressure. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) remains negative, indicating sustained taker-driven sell flows. However, the price has held steady — a sign that strong buying interest is absorbing the pressure, possibly from whales or institutions, accordingt o Cointelegraph.
