Key Takeaways:
Citi analysts suggest the June FOMC minutes may be more dovish than Powell’s public comments.
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for July 29–30, 2025.
Markets are closely watching for any signs that the Fed is lowering the bar for rate cuts.
Citi analysts say the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, expected on July 10, could reveal a more dovish tone than Chair Jerome Powell conveyed at the press conference. According to Citi, Powell tends to strike a neutral tone in public briefings, but internal discussions may show growing support for easing policy.
“The minutes may better reflect what Powell did not explicitly say — that the bar for rate cuts is falling,” Citi noted in a report shared via Jinshi Data.
While recent U.S. employment data has reduced the odds of a near-term rate cut, the Fed’s internal tone may still lean dovish amid signs of a slowing economy and easing inflation.
Next Key Date: The next FOMC meeting will take place July 29–30, 2025, where policymakers are expected to reassess rate guidance based on incoming data.
Market participants are watching both the upcoming minutes and the July decision for clues on whether the Fed is ready to pivot. With Bitcoin and equities reacting sharply to rate expectations, clarity from the Fed could set the tone for risk assets heading into Q3.
