With a swing of Trump's tariff stick, the 'heart' of global metals — copper prices — skyrocketed to a historical high, waking up the slumbering 'commodity bull'!
What’s the matter? Trump has made another tough statement, saying he will impose a 50% 'sky-high' tariff on imported copper, and this time the 'deadline' has come, no more delays! This means that this matter is very likely to be implemented.
How did the market react? As soon as the market heard it, it 'exploded'! The price of the world's most important metal, copper (known as 'the industrial backbone' and 'the economic barometer'), surged directly to an unprecedented historical high (for example, the London LME copper price once broke $11,000 per ton).
Why is it rising? The logic is very simple:
America is short on copper: The copper produced in the U.S. is simply not enough, heavily relying on imports (mainly from Chile, Peru, etc., with some refined copper from China).
Tariffs = skyrocketing costs: If a 50% tariff is really added, the price of imported copper in the U.S. will take off.
Grab goods! Stock up! Traders and companies that use copper (like those making wires, new energy vehicles, and air conditioners) are panicking, fearing they won't be able to afford or find it in the future, so they rush to buy as much as they can now, pushing up demand.
Global supply is tighter: The global copper mines are already tight (new energy and AI data centers require massive amounts of copper), and with the U.S. 'grabbing', copper from other places may also be diverted to sell at high prices to the U.S., making global supply tighter, and prices naturally rise.
Personal Opinion & Related Cases from the Crypto World:
On the surface, this is about copper, but at its core, it is the extreme manifestation of 'political risk premium' in the commodity market! It resonates with the logic of our crypto world’s 'news market' and 'speculation'.
Opinion: The surge in copper prices is not driven by a sudden fundamental change (though there is a long-term shortage), but by the immense uncertainty risk brought by political decisions! A single statement from Trump forcibly added a 'panic tax' and a 'scarcity expectation tax' to copper prices. This is reminiscent of the crypto world.
Case 1: Trump's Twitter Governance Era. Remember how a single tweet from Trump could cause Bitcoin to instantly surge or plummet? The market's sensitivity to 'key figures' statements has reappeared in the copper market. This time it is his tariff threat.
Case 2: Regulatory 'Ghost Stories'. The crypto world fears regulatory news at midnight. This time, players in the copper market also experienced the power of a 'policy black swan' — a potential significant policy change (50% tariff) is enough to make the entire market reprice.
Case 3: Speculation and FOMO. Just like when a certain Layer 1 announces an airdrop, the token jumps significantly. Copper prices are currently being speculated based on the strong expectation that 'if the tariffs are implemented, it will be more expensive and scarce', triggering global buyers' FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
Ending Hook:
The 'electronic trading' of copper has exploded; how will this 'commodity fire' ignited by politics spread and impact global inflation and monetary policy? When the 'interest rate cut dream' meets 'copper price madness', will the Federal Reserve's headache remedy become the 'fuel' for the next big market wave in our crypto world? Follow me, as next week I will break down the new script of the crypto market under the 'metal frenzy'!
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