Trump detonates the financial nuclear bomb! 50% copper tariff + pressuring Powell, the crypto market may welcome an epic行情!
Trump wields the tariff big stick, copper prices soar igniting the inflation fuse!
On July 9, the Trump administration announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200% on drugs, semiconductors, and other products, instantly igniting global markets! New York copper prices surged by 17% intraday, reaching an all-time high, with copper prices nearing $5 per pound. This 'tariff nuclear bomb' not only shook the industrial metal market but also directly raised global inflation expectations — the World Bank warned that global inflation rates could soar to 2.9% by 2025 due to tariff shocks, far exceeding pre-pandemic levels!
Crypto logic chain: Copper prices → Inflation → Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes explode!
Copper, known as 'industrial gold,' has historically been a barometer for economic overheating with its skyrocketing prices. This time, Trump's tariff policy exacerbates supply chain disruption risks, coupled with his 'Trade War 2.0' strategy, forcing the market to bet on the Fed being compelled to extend the high-interest rate cycle. However, just as inflation clouds gather, Trump suddenly attacks Fed Chairman Powell, accusing him of 'misleading Congress' and demanding immediate interest rate cuts to 'save the economy'!
Powell stands firm against Trump, the Fed finds itself in a dilemma!
Faced with presidential pressure, Powell responded firmly at the ECB forum: 'Tariff policies have significantly raised inflation expectations; the Fed needs to observe the data before taking action!' He admitted that without Trump's tariff shock, the Fed could have started cutting rates in 2025. However, now, tariffs have led to a 'highly uncertain' path for commodity inflation, leaving the Fed with no choice but to stand still, and it may even delay rate cuts until September!
Key point for crypto: Liquidity turning point may be delayed, but inflation hedging demand surges!
The Fed's policy deadlock directly impacts market liquidity expectations. Goldman Sachs' originally predicted three rate cuts may shrink, and cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, may be under pressure in the short term due to high capital costs. On the other hand, Bitcoin's 'digital gold' attribute is being activated — historical data shows that when inflation exceeds 3%, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold soars above 0.7! The recent surge in copper prices + tariffs pushing up inflation has accelerated institutional funds flowing into Bitcoin to hedge against fiat currency depreciation risks.
Semiconductor tariff threatens mining chains, surging miner costs trigger industry reshuffling!
Trump also plans to impose high tariffs on semiconductors, while mining chip production heavily relies on imports! If the policy is implemented, ASIC miner costs could rise by 30%, directly squeezing the profit margins of small and medium-sized miners. Industry predictions suggest this may trigger a migration of mining farms to low electricity price regions (like the Middle East, Northern Europe), temporarily reducing mining difficulty but accelerating industry consolidation in the long run.
Crypto opportunities: Reduced selling pressure from miners + hash rate restructuring may trigger Bitcoin halving-like行情!
Historical experience shows that rising miner costs often accompany soaring Bitcoin prices. After the closure of Chinese mining farms in 2021, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $30,000 to $69,000! If the semiconductor tariff is implemented, a similar scenario may unfold — miners reduce selling to maintain profits, combined with supply contraction during the hash rate restructuring period, Bitcoin may welcome a new round of major上涨!
Analysts are shouting $120,000! Technical and fundamental resonance, is the crypto bull market accelerating again?
Despite short-term policy disturbances, in the long run, Trump's 'inflation + tariff' combo is creating the perfect bullish logic for Bitcoin:
Technical perspective: Bitcoin breaks out of a symmetrical triangle consolidation, MACD golden cross + RSI overbought, target price points directly to $116,000 - $120,000;
Fundamental perspective: Global central banks' gold buying spree + institutional allocation demand strengthens Bitcoin's position as 'non-sovereign credit asset';
Sentiment perspective: The escalation of conflict between Trump and the Fed increases market uncertainty, driving more funds into cryptocurrencies.
Conclusion: July may become a key turning point for the crypto market!
Trump's tariff big stick and Powell's firm stance are reshaping the global financial landscape. For the crypto market, this presents both a challenge of short-term volatility and a catalyst for a long-term bull market! Key focus recommended:
July 29th Fed meeting: Whether to cut rates will determine the liquidity turning point;
August 1st tariff implementation date: Copper prices and inflation data may trigger the market;
Bitcoin resistance level at $108,000: A breakout will confirm the onset of the major上涨!
Final warning: Trump's 'America First' policy has ignited financial warfare; the crypto market must embrace volatility to reap dividends in this epic行情!
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