Bitcoin's Volatility at Historic Lows, but "Fireworks" Ahead

Bitcoin price volatility is at a record low, just 2% away from its all-time high. However, analysts from #QCPCapital warn to "beware of the calm", as the third and fourth quarters of this year may bring "fireworks" for the market.

Supporting Factors and Risk Warnings

Bitcoin's current stability is believed to be due to the market pricing in positive scenarios such as tariff delays, the FED cutting interest rates at the end of the year, and prolonged fiscal deficits. Continuous capital flows from ETF funds and corporate treasuries are supporting Bitcoin's price.

Notably, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has attracted nearly $53 billion in capital inflows and holds over 700,000 Bitcoin (equivalent to 3.52% of the total circulating supply). If ETF capital flows continue, the market could enter a phase of tightening supply, leading to greater volatility and stronger upward price pressure.

Analysts also point out that the stock market continues its strong upward trend, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching record highs, along with credit spreads at their narrowest since the March-April correction, indicating investor confidence.

However, the potential risk lies in President #DonaldTrump 's trade policy. If he implements aggressive tariff measures ahead of the August 1 deadline, this could negatively impact global growth and test the market's risk resilience.