Current UNI price 7.623, 24-hour increase of 3.59%, but trading volume shrinking (volume ratio 0.79), balanced buying and selling pressure (buy/sell ratio 0.995), short-term potential pullback. It is recommended to short, entry at 7.623, stop loss at 8.0, target 7.0, profit-loss ratio 1.65. Risk: Insufficient volume may lead to false breakouts, market sentiment influenced by macro events.
Technical Analysis
1. Price Status:
• Bollinger Band Position 56.54%, located between the middle and upper bands, indicating a high price but no overbought signal.
• MA200 deviation of 4.98%, price above long-term moving average (7.261), showing an upward trend but weakening momentum.
• Holding cost deviation of 4.50%, price above average cost (7.295), support level under pressure.
2. Market Strength:
• Volume Analysis: 24-hour trading volume ratio 0.79 (below 1), shrinking rise, low major participant involvement, unsustainable.
• Price and Volume Correlation: Recent price increase but shrinking volume, forming divergence, indicating pullback risk.
• Open Interest Change: Net outflow of contracts (like 1-day net -155.73k), capital withdrawal, intensifying long/short game.
• Smart Money Long/Short Ratio: Long/short changes are weakening (from 4.7351 to 4.6054), indicating potential reversal.
• Market News: No significant news, sentiment has been digested, focus is on technicals.
3. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
• Support Levels: 7.0 (buy-side liquidity concentration, value 300,841 USDT), 6.5 (second support, value 268,217 USDT).
• Resistance Levels: 8.0 (strong sell-side liquidity, value 266,568 USDT), 8.7 (key resistance, value 827,159 USDT).
• Liquidity Area: Many buy orders in the near zone (277,361 USDT), but a strong sell wall in the far zone (like 8.7 at 827,159 USDT), which can easily trigger price volatility.
• Buying and Selling Pressure: Selling pressure dominates (pressuredirection: "sell"), but many buy orders in the near zone (diff 66,825), short-term consolidation.
Market Cycle Analysis
Currently in a mid-bull market consolidation phase, with a 24-hour increase but shrinking trading volume, low trend sustainability, and potential for a pullback or consolidation.
Trading Strategy
• Entry Point: 7.623 (current price, aggressive entry).
• Stop Loss Point: 8.0 (strong resistance level, if broken, strategy fails).
• Target Level: 7.0 (support level, liquidity concentration).
• Profit and Loss Ratio: 1.65 (calculated based on Short direction).
Risk Warning
• Market Risk Factors: Insufficient trading volume (volumeratio 0.79) may amplify volatility; net outflow of contracts (like a 5-day net -3.26m) suggests capital flight.
• Strategy Failure Conditions: If the price breaks 8.0 or macro events (like regulatory news) occur, immediately stop loss and reassess.
• Operational Precautions: Position control (single risk < total capital 2%); avoid trading during low liquidity periods (such as Asian sessions).
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