#TrumpTariffs Here’s a refined overview of Trump’s tariffs (July 2025)

📈 What’s happening now

New tariffs across key allies and regions

Trump recently issued official letters to 14 countries—including Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asian nations (Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam), and BRICS nations—announcing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% (and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals, 50% on copper) with an implementation deadline of August 1, 2025 .

Steel and aluminum hike

Effective June 4, tariffs on steel and aluminum were doubled—from 25% to 50%—under Section 232 .

💵 Economic and market impact

Tariff rates at historic highs

The U.S. average effective tariff rate has climbed from ~2.5% to ~16% (applied), and an “effective” rate of 12–13%, possibly 17% soon .

Rising costs for businesses & consumers

Mid‑sized U.S. firms are estimated to absorb $82 billion in new costs .

Goldman Sachs expects ~70% of these costs to be passed to consumers .

Earnings & market resilience

Q2 earnings may reflect margin pressure—S&P EPS growth projected at 4% (down from 12%) . Yet markets remain calm: the S&P500 hovers near record highs, while investors diversify with gold, bonds, and foreign equities .

🌍 Broader economic implications

Global supply disruption

The new tariffs especially target trans-shipment hubs in Southeast Asia to counter indirect Chinese exports—this risks distorting supply chains and raising U.S. import costs .

Revenue boost & inflation concerns

U.S. tariff revenues are rising—$24 billion in May—with projections of $300 billion annually . However, economists warn this may fuel inflation and suppress GDP growth (~0.7%) over the next year .

Risks of economic drag

JPMorgan estimates a $82 billion cost bump; mid-sized firms face tightened margins or layoffs . Apollo Global warns of a 90% probability of a tariff-driven recession .

⚖️ Political & legal context

**“Tariff Man” strategy under scrutiny**

Criticism is growing—from the WSJ to FT—for straining alliances and risking economic retaliation .