After surpassing the $100,000 threshold on May 8, Bitcoin's price has maintained a close above this psychological level every day. Although on June 22, BTC recorded a drop to $98,300, this cryptocurrency asset still approached new highs above $111,800.
Daily Bitcoin Chart | Source: TradingView
Although the drop to $100,000 only reflects a 9% adjustment, an indicator suggests that the price range between $100,000 and $110,000 could become a new bottom before BTC undergoes another parabolic surge in the latter half of 2025.
According to data from CryptoQuant, market activity indicates a long-term recovery in confidence, with on-chain data showing outflows outperforming inflows. The monthly outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9, a level not seen since the end of the bear market in 2022, and often signals strong demand.
Bitcoin inflow/outflow ratio on exchanges over the past 30 days | Source: CryptoQuant
This ratio, measuring the balance between BTC transferred out of and into exchanges, serves as a sentiment indicator. A reading below 1 indicates that investors are withdrawing assets from exchanges, often reflecting accumulation behavior. Conversely, values above 1.05 have historically coincided with increased selling pressure and local market peaks.
Notably, this recent decline reflects levels seen in December 2022, when Bitcoin hit a macro bottom near $15,500. This pivot point led to a months-long rally, reinforcing the hypothesis that a low ratio often signals a price reversal.
The current dominance of outflows and the increasing participation of long-term investors create a compelling reason for the formation of a structural bottom. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may be approaching a critical pivot point due to demand, with the potential to mark the beginning of the next bull run.
Bitcoin absorbs selling pressure from short-term traders
Despite selling pressure from the sellers on Binance's derivatives contracts persisting for the past 45 days, Bitcoin remains stable in the price range of $100,000–$110,000. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data remains negative, indicating short-term selling pressure from traders. However, the inability of prices to decline further suggests that this selling pressure is being absorbed, implying accumulation.
Accumulated Delta Volume on Binance | Source: CryptoQuant
This structural resilience may be bolstered by on-chain activity showing the movement of institutions. According to crypto analyst Maartunn, more than 19,400 BTC worth approximately $2.11 billion was transferred on Tuesday from dormant wallets to institutional-level addresses. These coins had not been touched for periods ranging from three to seven years, emphasizing the significance of this move.
Such transfers are often not impulsive actions. These activities are usually related to strategic positioning, indicating that large entities may be participating when prices hold steady amidst evident short-term pressure.
Continuous selling pressure, slight reactions, and large-scale accumulation reinforce the argument that Bitcoin is forming a bottom near $100,000. Although short-term volatility may continue, support from investors, possibly from institutions, may make a strong correction below this level increasingly unlikely.
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