Future trends: Regulatory breakthroughs and opportunities for the RMB stablecoin
As Yiwu merchants struggle between compliance and efficiency, the global regulatory landscape for stablecoins is accelerating formation:
In May 2025, the Hong Kong Legislative Council passed the (Stablecoin Regulation Draft), becoming the world's first jurisdiction to establish a licensing system for fiat stablecoins. In the same month, the United States (GENIUS Act) was passed, allowing national banks to directly issue US dollar stablecoins and requiring them to be 100% backed by highly liquid assets.
Regulatory breakthroughs drive explosive growth in market scale, with the global supply of stablecoins reaching $214 billion by February 2025, and annual transaction volume at $35 trillion, over twice the Visa transaction volume. Citibank predicts that the stablecoin market could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030.
Hong Kong leads institutional innovation:
• On August 1, 2025, the Hong Kong (Stablecoin Regulation) officially comes into effect, becoming the first jurisdiction to comprehensively regulate stablecoins.
• Yiwu's cross-border payment platform 'Yi Pay' has expressed its intention to apply for a Hong Kong license at an opportune time.
The 'impossible triangle' of the US dollar stablecoin:
Zou Chuanwei from the Shanghai Financial Laboratory proposes: The US dollar stablecoin cannot simultaneously achieve three goals - large-scale issuance, investment in long-term US Treasury reserves, and flexible redemption for users. If forced, it could exacerbate volatility in the US Treasury market and even trigger a redemption crisis.
Offshore path of the RMB stablecoin:
• Zhou Guangyou from Fudan University suggests: Pilot a RMB-pegged stablecoin in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone or the Greater Bay Area.
• Hong Kong can leverage its position as a financial center to promote the application of RMB stablecoins in cross-border trade, gradually expanding into the financial investment sector.
In this global game, stablecoins have become a new vehicle for financial competition among major powers. The United States (GENIUS Act) mandates that stablecoins are 100% pegged to the US dollar or US Treasury bonds, making the global stablecoin market an extension of dollar hegemony.
The Hong Kong (Stablecoin Regulation) allows for a 'basket of assets' to be pegged (including RMB), and institutions like Ant Group and Tencent are preparing to issue compliant offshore stablecoins, exploring new paths for RMB internationalization. When Hong Kong's regulatory sandbox hatches the first batch of compliant stablecoins, when African merchants buy Yiwu's bags with USDT, and when JD's cross-border payment tests connect Eurasia - the hesitation of Yiwu merchants is merely a projection of the time difference between technological revolution and institutional transformation.
The narrative of stablecoins in Yiwu is essentially a microcosm of the transformation of global financial infrastructure, balancing the inertia of traditional interest chains with the unstoppable efficiency of technology. With the establishment of Hong Kong licenses and the entry of major players, compliance pathways may truly open up the application space for stablecoins in cross-border trade. Whether the RMB stablecoin can break through is not only related to the transaction fees for Yiwu merchants but will also reshape the global monetary power structure.
