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1. Context and main fundamentals 📊

Current price: ≈ 0.1604 USD, intraday range between 0.1552–0.1618 USD.

Growing ecosystem: Focus on AI, Web3 gaming, sustainability, and energy thanks to new tools and the inclusion of companies in its Council**.

Regulatory movement: The SEC is evaluating ETF applications (Canary, Grayscale), which may increase institutional demand — decision expected after July 7, 2025**.

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2. Technical analysis

Recent patterns:

Formation of flag pattern and breakout upwards in early May indicating bullish continuation**.

Solid accumulated support at 0.148–0.150 USD, immediate resistance near 0.154 USD**.

EMA and MACD showing mixed signals; moderate RSI, still room before overbought**.

Key ranges:

Conservative support: 0.148 USD

Aggressive support: 0.142–0.145 USD (recent lows)

Immediate resistance: 0.154–0.155 USD

Upside targets: 0.17 USD (break resistance), then 0.20–0.22 USD (if ETFs are approved or momentum continues).

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3. Risk and capital management

Position size: risk ≤ 1–2% of capital per trade.

Stop-loss:

Safe level: below 0.148 USD (~7.5% of the price).

More aggressive level: below 0.142 USD (~11.5%).

Tiered take profit:

Part 1: exit at 0.170–0.175 (5–10% profit).

Part 2: exit at 0.20–0.22 (25–35%).

Trailing stop: optional from 0.17 USD to protect gains if it rises further.

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4. Entry triggers

1. breakout and daily close above 0.155 USD with volume > average.

2. confirmation of continuation pattern, e.g. pennant or flag on daily/4h chart.

3. macro signals: positive news about ETFs, corporate adoption, roadmap updates.

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5. Check calendar (daily/weekly)

Daily:

Check price, volume, support/resistance.

Pending news (CoinDesk, BSCN, Hedera).

Weekly:

Weekly technical analysis: RSI, MACD, EMA.

ETF tracking (SEC, Canary, Grayscale).

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6. External considerations

Market sentiment:

Reddit reports mixed recent flows and signs of possible correction if bearish indicators such as "death cross" or negative flows occur**.

Potential catalysts:

Effective ETF approval, adoption by new companies (e.g. B4E in energy), impact of updates like AI Studio**.

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7. Plan summary

Action Level / Trigger Target/Gain Stop-loss / Risk

Conservative entry Close >0.155 USD + volume Target: 0.17 USD (5–10%) SL just below 0.148 USD

Aggressive entry Support bridge 0.148 USD Target: 0.17 → 0.20 USD SL at 0.142 USD

Partial exit 0.17–0.175 USD Lock profit Adjust trailing stop

Complete exit 0.20–0.22 USD 25–35% return Rebalancing or reinvestment

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8. Review and adjustments

If it breaks 0.17 quickly and maintains momentum (volume/speed), adjust the trailing stop to take advantage of the rise up to 0.20.

If it loses 0.148, close or reduce position to avoid a larger drop.

Reactivate plan if the price corrects to support levels and then shows signs of recovery.

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✅ Conclusion

The technical and fundamental scenario for HBAR is moderately optimistic. We aim to take advantage of possible breakouts at 0.155–0.17 USD, with tiered targets towards 0.20–0.22 USD, seeking prudent risk management and attention to key catalysts (ETFs, adoption, updates).

#Spot #trading #StrategicTrading #hbar $HBAR