The current market is overall at a relatively high level, with limited upward space, but the internal structure has support, making it not easy to directly plunge; it is in a phase of 'not much rise, not deep fall.'
Looking at Bitcoin from a weekly perspective, the potential divergence structure has lasted for 7 weeks, and it is highly probable that it will continue in the coming weeks, so do not hold high expectations for the future market; the focus should be on preventing a pullback. Relatively low-risk opportunities may appear around the 100,000 to 97,000 and 87,000 to 84,000 ranges.
From on-chain data, we find that: buying pressure is starting to decrease, which we should pay attention to.
Legendary trader Arthur Hayes also mentioned he has liquidated his positions, expecting a drop to 90,000 in August; I think there is some reference value in that. The current position is too extreme and not suitable for aggressive moves; waiting for the market to enter panic (ideally when the panic index drops below 40 and extreme panic below 25) would be a better time for long-term bottom fishing.
I plan to observe a bit longer, at most waiting until the end of August to complete my positions, just in time for the expectations of an interest rate cut in September and the ETF in October.
Now let's look at #Ethereum: in the short term, Ethereum is still in that head and shoulders bottom structure. It was previously mentioned that the right shoulder might be similar to the left shoulder, with a spike before retracting; unexpectedly, it completed the symmetry of the left shoulder with multiple daily candles. Next, we’ll see if it can break and hold above the neckline; once confirmed, ETH is expected to challenge its historical high.
Regarding altcoins: the current altcoin market is basically a daily rotation of low-market-cap coins doubling in value, then immediately being harvested and falling to the bottom; from MYX to $VIC, and then to the recent $FIS, it's all part of one script: wild institutions pump and dump, showing no mercy.
Next, the focus is on #WFLI, the first round of participation has already seen 8-10 times returns, and the current valuation on Polymarket is 13 billion, a project heavily promoted by Eric, likely exceeding the market cap of $TRUMP. However, expectations are currently too high, making it difficult to see multiple increases, unless USD1 can truly challenge USDT and USDC, then it’s a different story.
Alright, let's see if there are any altcoins worth paying attention to.
DOGE
Remember when Musk strongly supported Trump in the election, and $DOGE surged 4 times in two weeks?
Now Musk is personally entering the campaign; to be honest, his chances of success are quite high—after all, he is both the world's richest person and the largest KOL on the internet. Even if he can't become president, as long as he secures a few parliamentary seats, he can become a 'KingMaker'—a key voter whose approval can truly sway the outcome.
Behind this, for $DOGE, it is a super positive signal. Not to mention that Dogecoin itself has a 90% chance of passing the spot ETF in October, which would be the launch point.
In addition to DOGE, $SOL, $XRP, and $ADA are also expected to have ETF approvals around the same time; the coming months are truly suitable for quietly accumulating coins.
Besides mainstream coins, $PEPE and $BONK are also quite good; one is the leader on Ethereum, and the other is a representative of the Solana chain.
#PEPE: Previously mentioned multiple times, mainly riding on the dividends of the Ethereum staking ETF in October.
#BONK: It is the first meme coin on Solana, backed by a token issuance platform called BonkFun, which has already captured 30% of the Solana new coin market, comparable to Pump.fun, but the latter is gradually declining, with market share dropping below 50%, and is being overtaken by BONK and Ray.
So $BONK is not only the meme leader on the Solana chain but also a potential stock in the token issuance track; it can continue to earn transaction fees through the platform, which is incomparable to other lesser-known coins.
Of course, those who haven’t jumped in shouldn’t rush; the real big market might still be during the approval of the October ETF, at which point $DOGE, $SOL, and $ETH all have opportunities for 50%-100% increases. There is still ample time to position in July and August.
Finally, a reminder: the opposite of these potential coins is the risk of unlocking coins.
For example, #TRUMP, there’s a large unlocking on July 17; recently Bitcoin surged to 110,000, but it dropped to 8U with no reaction, a typical bearish target.
That's it for the article! If you're feeling lost in the crypto world, consider planning and harvesting with me!
