In the first half of 2025, Bitcoin solidified its transformation from a speculative instrument to a true macro‑asset of institutional allocation. The growing demand from funds, banks, and professional investors pushed its capitalization and dominance to the highest levels of the past four years, confirming the centrality of BTC in the alternative investment landscape.
This analysis is based on the data from the 2025 semi-annual report by CoinGlass on the crypto derivatives market, which highlights how the institutional flow towards Bitcoin is redefining the market itself.
Bitcoin: new records and stability
Bitcoin opened 2025 with a rally that took it beyond $110,000 in January, driven by record inflows into spot ETF funds approved in 2024. In the following months, BTC consolidated its position, oscillating in a relatively stable range between $100,000 and $112,000, a typical behavior of a mature asset.
According to CoinGlass, at the end of June, Bitcoin’s dominance reached 65%, the highest value since 2021. This trend reflects a growing preference of institutional investors for BTC compared to other criptovalute, especially in an uncertain macroeconomic context characterized by geopolitical risks.
The push of spot ETFs
A key factor in the institutional rise of BTC has been the spread of spot ETFs on Bitcoin, which have allowed for regulated and transparent exposure to the market. CoinGlass reports that the total assets under management (AUM) of BTC ETFs have exceeded $130 billion in the first half of 2025, with a sustained growth rate quarter after quarter.
These products have opened the doors to capital from pension funds, wealth managers, and family offices, which in the past had remained on the sidelines of the crypto market due to a lack of adequate tools.
Increasing dominance and risk‑off
The increase in BTC dominance compared to the rest of the crypto market is not just a matter of price: it reflects a true change in perception. If until a few years ago Bitcoin was considered a speculative bet, today it is increasingly seen as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and the instability of traditional markets.
In particular, the weakness of the Dollar Index (DXY), the uncertain monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and the worsening of geopolitical tensions (e.g., escalation of US tariffs) have strengthened the narrative of BTC as a safe haven asset, prompting institutional capital to increase allocations.
The data on derivatives confirm the trend
The derivatives markets also testify to the institutional rise of Bitcoin:
The open interest (OI) of BTC futures has exceeded $70 billion, with the market share of CME — the regulated American exchange — rising to the first position, surpassing Binance.
This shift of the OI towards the CME is a clear signal that BTC trading is increasingly migrating towards regulated channels, preferred by professional investors.
Institutional long positions have helped to keep the market on more solid ground, limiting excessive leverage and stabilizing volatility.
Risks and Prospects
Although the first half of 2025 has consolidated the role of BTC as a macro‑asset, there are still risks to monitor:
Possible increases in USA rates or delays in the planned cuts.
Possible geopolitical or regulatory shocks.
Excessive crowding of institutional long positions, which could accentuate a correction in case of a trend reversal.
Despite this, CoinGlass maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the second half of the year, anticipating a continuation of institutional demand and a possible further increase in prices if the macro environment improves.
Conclusion
The year 2025 marks a crucial milestone for Bitcoin: its evolution from an emerging asset to a stable component of global allocation strategies is now a reality. The growth of dominance, record flows into ETFs, and the CME’s surpassing of Binance in derivatives are all signals of a market that is changing its face.
For investors, this means opportunities but also new responsibilities: understanding the institutional nature of the market, monitoring monetary policies, and managing risk with a keen eye on leverage and liquidity.
